Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:44:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x06dc…740b politics 145 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate12%17W / 127L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$251per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$16
politics 40% −$19
sports 8% +$37
crypto 3% −$1
economics 3% −$1
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 101 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 144 +2.2% -7.5% 12% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 6% -9.5%
10% -16.4% 4% -18.2%
15% -24.4% 4% -26.1%
20% -31.9% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×7.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses17 / 127
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)144 / 145
History coverage123d
Avg bet$251
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $120 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 24 $162 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $321 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $289 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $25 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $245 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $23 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $25 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $224 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $239 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $497 −$1 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $198 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $239 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $386 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $180 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $598 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $184 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $198 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 19 $398 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $239 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $171 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $209 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $221 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 16 $399 −$1 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $223 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $181 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $177 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $631 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $223 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $175 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $403 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 07 $186 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $451 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $232 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $385 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $446 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $427 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 03 $231 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $220 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $728 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 02 $459 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $250 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $230 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $181 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $430 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $211 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $216 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $503 −$1 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $237 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $453 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $186 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $120 in June? BUY No 100¢ $29 1h
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 26h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 35h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 47h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $39 3d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $39 3d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $25 3d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $25 4d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $36 5d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $36 5d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 23d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 24d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $37 24d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 24d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $25 25d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 25d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $224 25d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $224 27d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $239 29d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $239 29d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $240 29d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $240 29d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $250 30d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $250 30d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $198 30d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $198 31d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $239 31d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $239 31d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $176 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.99 · official $28.99 (match) · 443 history records