Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:51:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x06d9…9b3b politics 108 markets active 2h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$997 (-1%) realized −$997 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate5%5W / 102L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$663per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$846now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$7
14 days−$17
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$59
politics 37% −$36
sports 6% −$907
economics 5% −$5
culture 4% −$4
world 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 29 -3.6% -12.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 107 -7.8% -16.6% 5% 1% -10.8%
all 107 -7.8% -16.6% 5% 1% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 1% -10.8%
10% -24.5% 1% -19.4%
15% -31.8% 1% -27.1%
20% -38.5% 1% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$884) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -12% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$10 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$846
Realized−$997
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses5 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)107 / 108
History coverage84d
Avg bet$663
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $846 $846 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $1,370 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $1,100 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $269 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $772 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $889 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $781 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $756 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $732 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $906 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $912 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $709 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $1,603 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,723 −$3 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $412 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 04 $78 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 04 $294 $0 +0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $1,353 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $534 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $764 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $1,326 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $826 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 25 $645 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $340 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $1,587 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $752 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 23 $644 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $739 −$1 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 21 $596 −$1 -0%
Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 19 $203 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 19 $414 −$1 -0%
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins May 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $210 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 18 $482 −$1 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 18 $237 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $941 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 17 $220 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $213 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 17 $219 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $235 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 16 $234 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $231 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $212 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 15 $230 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $214 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $240 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $243 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $242 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 13 $1,163 −$2 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 13 $214 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $846 1h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $457 20h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $457 21h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $315 23h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $316 25h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $268 25h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $269 29h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $771 4d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $772 5d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $888 6d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $889 6d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $779 6d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $781 7d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $755 7d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $756 7d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $730 10d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $732 10d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $905 11d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $906 11d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $910 12d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $912 12d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $708 13d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $709 13d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $749 13d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $750 13d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $789 13d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $790 14d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $411 14d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $412 15d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $608 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $845.65 · official $845.65 (match) · 290 history records