Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:02:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

06 0x06d8…90cd sports 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$82 (-4%) realized −$80 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip

Net edge+3%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate50%6W / 6L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$142per market

Trades / day36.0pace

Fees−$10est.

Kalshi-fit62%portable

Net worth$328now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)+20.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	12	+33.7%	+20.9%	50%	25%	-7.6%
≤30d	12	+33.7%	+20.9%	50%	25%	-7.6%
≤90d	12	+33.7%	+20.9%	50%	25%	-7.6%
all	12	+33.7%	+20.9%	50%	25%	-7.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover36.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+20.9%	25%	-7.6%
10% ← realistic here	+9.4%	25%	-16.4%
15%	-1.2%	17%	-24.5%
20%	-10.9%	17%	-31.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 36% · top 2 54% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

33% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +34% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -17% → late +84% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$29 vs −$24 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.22 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$328

Realized−$80

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses6 / 6

Est. fees paid−$10

Open positions1

Markets (closed)12 / 13

History coverage1d

Avg bet$142

Trades / day36.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 12 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	85¢	84¢	$330	$328	−$2 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	Jun 27	$87	+$24	+28%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$5	+$31	+603%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: New Zealand O/U 1.5	Jun 27	$251	+$26	+10%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5	Jun 27	$241	+$9	+4%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$56	−$22	-40%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 1.5	Jun 27	$5	−$5	-98%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: New Zealand O/U 0.5	Jun 27	$20	−$20	-99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$101	−$2	-2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$320	+$21	+6%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	Jun 27	$123	+$63	+52%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$101	−$22	-22%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5	Jun 26	$200	−$71	-36%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	85¢	$331	41m
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$21	58m
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	BUY Yes	95¢	$20	1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	SELL Yes	90¢	$90	1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26?	SELL No	94¢	$36	1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	BUY Yes	91¢	$63	1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	BUY Yes	13¢	$4	1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26?	BUY No	13¢	$5	1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: New Zealand O/U 1.5	SELL Under	100¢	$276	1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: New Zealand O/U 1.5	BUY Under	90¢	$251	1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5	SELL Under	89¢	$250	1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	85¢	$241	1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	27¢	$0	1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	28¢	$34	1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 1.5	BUY Under	16¢	$5	2h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: New Zealand O/U 0.5	BUY Under	73¢	$20	2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	39¢	$20	2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	82¢	$98	2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	64¢	$20	2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	37¢	$15	3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	83¢	$101	3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	99¢	$237	4h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$53	4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	87¢	$90	4h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	76¢	$40	4h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	SELL Yes	73¢	$134	4h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	44¢	$83	4h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	31¢	$79	4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	74¢	$101	5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	49¢	$104	5h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $328.06 · official $328.06 (match) · 36 history records