Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:11:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
06 0x06d6…44bc other 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (106 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$844 (+8%) realized +$982 · open −$138
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate62%10W / 6L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$562per market
Trades / day105.8pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$840
world 22% −$24
finance 5% +$17
sports 4% −$25
weather 4% −$133
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (106 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +2.1% -7.6% 62% 6% -2.8%
≤30d 16 +2.1% -7.6% 62% 6% -2.8%
≤90d 16 +2.1% -7.6% 62% 6% -2.8%
all 16 +2.1% -7.6% 62% 6% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover105.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.6% 6% -2.8%
10% -16.5% 6% -12.1%
15% ← realistic here -24.5% 6% -20.6%
20% -31.9% 6% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$9 · ×10.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×16.81 per $1 lost it wins $16.81
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized+$982
Unrealized−$138
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses10 / 6
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions4
Markets (closed)16 / 20
History coverage2d
Avg bet$562
Trades / day105.8
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Yes 32¢ 34¢ $46 $50 +$4 (+8%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? No 72¢ $144 $16 −$128 (-89%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? Yes 22¢ $17 $3 −$14 (-84%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? Yes 27¢ 30¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $1,015 −$16 -2%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $487 −$25 -5%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $430 +$17 +4%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $657 +$68 +10%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 17 $254 +$6 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 17 $871 +$2 +0%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $9 $0 +3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,498 +$2 +0%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,320 +$680 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? Jun 16 $18 −$1 -3%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $1,168 +$50 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 16 $638 −$10 -2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $129 $0 -0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 15 $43 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $680 +$20 +3%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,820 +$20 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $3 21m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 61¢ $3 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 47¢ $463 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $487 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 39¢ $0 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 39¢ $6 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 38¢ $7 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $594 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $131 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? BUY No 72¢ $144 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 32¢ $15 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 32¢ $15 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL Yes 56¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL Yes 56¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL Yes 56¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL Yes 56¢ $11 5h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL Yes 56¢ $11 5h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL Yes 56¢ $22 5h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL Yes 56¢ $34 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.98 · official $70.01 (match) · 241 history records