Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:39:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x06d4…91e3 crypto 79 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$33 (-6%) realized −$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate51%40W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day18.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$51
7 days−$66
14 days−$83
30 days−$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$68
other 18% −$15
sports 6% +$1
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -13.1% -21.4% 52% 32% -22.4%
≤30d 78 -17.1% -25.0% 51% 28% -24.2%
≤90d 78 -17.1% -25.0% 51% 28% -24.2%
all 78 -17.1% -25.0% 51% 28% -24.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.0% 28% -24.2%
10% -32.2% 13% -31.4%
15% -38.8% 9% -38.0%
20% -44.8% 8% -44.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses40 / 38
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)78 / 79
History coverage8d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day18.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 48¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$11 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $51 −$19 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$3 +5%
Will Iraq be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 16 $50 −$4 -8%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -0%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 16 $1 $0 -2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$7 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$5 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tunisia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 14 $10 −$2 -20%
World Cup Goals H2H: Neymar vs. Vinicius Jr. Jun 14 $5 +$1 +21%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 14 $1 $0 -4%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Jun 13 $2 +$1 +33%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $20 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $16 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $31 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $51 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $51 1h
Will Iraq be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $46 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 82¢ $1 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 76¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 69¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.80 · official $19.80 (match) · 190 history records