Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:30:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
06 0x06d4…8264 other 400 markets active 1h ago coverage 558d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$747 (+4%) realized +$773 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate63%234W / 140L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$366now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$297
7 days+$500
14 days+$462
30 days+$677
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$418
tech 12% +$269
sports 12% +$141
world 10% −$355
economics 6% +$54
politics 6% +$310
crypto 5% −$43
culture 1% +$30
finance 1% −$68
weather 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 +27.3% +15.2% 83% 73% +5.7%
≤30d 150 +6.6% -3.6% 69% 61% +1.1%
≤90d 286 -6.4% -15.3% 59% 49% -10.0%
all 374 -2.0% -11.3% 63% 49% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 49% -5.8%
10% -19.8% 37% -14.8%
15% -27.5% 25% -23.1%
20% -34.6% 16% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$20 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

558d coverage
Net worth$366
Realized+$773
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses234 / 140
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions15
Markets (closed)374 / 400
History coverage558d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 374 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: England (-1.5) England 63¢ 50¢ $75 $60 −$15 (-20%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 65¢ 68¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+4%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? No 59¢ 81¢ $19 $26 +$7 (+36%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? No 82¢ 74¢ $27 $24 −$2 (-9%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $23 $21 −$2 (-8%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: England (-2.5) England 39¢ 23¢ $30 $18 −$12 (-41%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+10%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-29%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $30 +$13 +42%
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) Jun 23 $75 +$15 +19%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $31 +$10 +33%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $23 +$3 +13%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $50 +$23 +46%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 23 $49 +$4 +9%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15 +$8 +52%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $50 +$8 +16%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $211 +$53 +25%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $25 −$25 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $40 +$4 +10%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $41 +$31 +76%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $60 +$16 +27%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $76 +$32 +42%
France to score first vs. Iraq? Jun 22 $22 +$3 +13%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $126 +$47 +38%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $50 +$4 +9%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 22 $118 +$12 +10%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $50 +$9 +18%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 +$19 +93%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$9 +17%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 +$11 +11%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 21 $10 +$31 +307%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $157 +$42 +27%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $57 −$57 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$16 +52%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$32 +63%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $40 +$29 +73%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 +$11 +22%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $15 +$4 +29%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Jun 20 $2 +$11 +557%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? A Jun 20 $51 +$30 +60%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $10 +$9 +90%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $20 +$7 +34%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $48 +$32 +66%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$7 +24%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $30 +$32 +105%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 +$17 +57%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $50 +$8 +16%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $78 −$77 -99%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $20 +$9 +46%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +7%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 18 $26 +$4 +17%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $71 +$28 +40%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $25 −$15 -58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 39¢ $31 40m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $20 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $43 1h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) SELL Uzbekistan 100¢ $90 1h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Uzbekistan 92¢ $5 1h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Uzbekistan 87¢ $5 1h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Uzbekistan 88¢ $5 1h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Uzbekistan 85¢ $5 1h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Uzbekistan 85¢ $5 1h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Uzbekistan 80¢ $5 1h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Uzbekistan 82¢ $15 1h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Uzbekistan 83¢ $10 1h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Uzbekistan 81¢ $20 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $10 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $20 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal 99¢ $41 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 72¢ $20 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 2h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 100¢ $73 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 66¢ $10 2h
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $10 2h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 91¢ $15 2h
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $15 2h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 63¢ $16 3h
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $17 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 88¢ $23 3h
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $22 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 5h
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 5h
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $366.41 · official $507.87 · 1392 history records