Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:59:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

06
0x06cb…f47f
sports · 324 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$36 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$43 · open −$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Net worth$232
Realized+$43
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses153 / 146
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions27
Markets (closed)299 / 324
History coverage77d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day43.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 27 History 299 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$11
14 days−$4
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 96¢ 100¢ $67 $70 +$3 (+4%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 80¢ 81¢ $21 $22 +$0 (+2%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 87¢ 91¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+5%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 34¢ 28¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-20%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 63¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 85¢ 80¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 73¢ 72¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 71¢ 90¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+26%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 30¢ 38¢ $4 $6 +$1 (+28%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 25¢ 26¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 97¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? No 98¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 92¢ 91¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 58¢ 54¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Yes 64¢ 42¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-35%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 31¢ 16¢ $8 $4 −$4 (-50%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $5 $3 −$1 (-26%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? No 87¢ 99¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+14%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 74¢ 38¢ $3 $1 −$1 (-48%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? No 97¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? No 94¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 79¢ 57¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-03-27? Jun 12 $0 −$5 -10111%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $43 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $4 $0 -3%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $5 $0 +8%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $5 $0 +7%
Will GameStop (GME) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $5 $0 +9%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $30 +$2 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 06 $5 −$4 -80%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? Jun 05 $10 $0 +4%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jerome Powell by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $5 $0 +1%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in May? Jun 04 $5 $0 -1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $141 +$15 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 02 $10 −$2 -19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $92 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $5 $0 -1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $3 +$4 +114%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 02 $20 +$1 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 30 $15 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 30 $40 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 29 $10 −$10 -99%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $40 −$13 -32%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $5 −$2 -47%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 23 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $76 +$10 +13%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 20 $5 $0 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $10 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $6 $0 -7%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 17? May 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 13 $12 +$1 +10%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 13 $4 $0 +12%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? May 13 $5 −$4 -84%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 12 $5 −$2 -43%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? May 11 $8 −$8 -99%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 09 $35 +$6 +18%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 09 $10 −$1 -11%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 09 $15 −$3 -20%
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in May? May 07 $10 $0 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 7? May 07 $5 $0 -2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 07 $5 −$5 -96%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 06 $5 +$1 +13%
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? May 05 $139 $0 +0%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? May 01 $30 −$5 -17%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? May 01 $5 +$1 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $15 −$4 -28%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? May 01 $5 +$3 +63%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? May 01 $25 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 47% +$53
sports 26% −$86
economics 8% +$68
other 7% +$5
finance 6% −$14
crypto 4% +$13
politics 2% +$4
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 67¢ $0 2m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 5m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $2 43m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $2 49m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 68¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 65¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 65¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 65¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 65¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 65¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $4 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $1 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 76¢ $0 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $5 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $5 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $5 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $3 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $5 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $0 12h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? SELL Yes 58¢ $0 12h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 74¢ $0 12h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 73¢ $0 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $0 13h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 72¢ $12 13h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 73¢ $0 13h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? SELL Yes 62¢ $0 13h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? SELL Yes 62¢ $0 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -12.8% -21.1% 64% 0% -13.5%
≤30d 34 -10.9% -19.4% 59% 12% -10.1%
≤90d 299 -5.9% -14.9% 51% 34% -8.1%
all 299 -5.9% -14.9% 51% 34% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover43.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.9% 34% -8.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.0% 28% -16.9%
15% -30.5% 25% -25.0%
20% -37.3% 23% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $231.99 · official $231.33 (match) · 3500 history records