Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:11:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
06 0x06ca…ec8f crypto 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 107d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$112 (+17%) realized +$115 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$322now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 107d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% +$112
other 49% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +122.2% +101.1% 100% 100% +101.1%
≤90d 2 +11.1% +0.5% 50% 50% +100.7%
all 5 -11.4% -19.8% 60% 40% +20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 40% +20.4%
10% -27.5% 20% +8.8%
15% -34.5% 20% -1.7%
20% -40.9% 20% -11.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +122% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +33% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$39 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.42 per $1 lost it wins $2.42
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$322
Realized+$115
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage107d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $325 $322 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 07 $145 +$177 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Mar 15 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Mar 15 $66 +$13 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Mar 15 $49 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $329 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $6 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $9 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $9 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $27 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $9 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $9 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $20 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $20 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $8 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $78 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $3 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $15 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $13 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $2 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $1 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $3 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $15 105d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $321.65 · official $321.65 (match) · 50 history records