Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:42:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x06c9…424f sports 88 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$325 (-8%) realized −$324 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate34%22W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day22.6pace
Fees−$54est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$309now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$392
other 20% −$740
crypto 0% −$7
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-31.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -23.8% -31.0% 34% 32% -18.5%
≤30d 65 -23.8% -31.0% 34% 32% -18.5%
≤90d 65 -23.8% -31.0% 34% 32% -18.5%
all 65 -23.8% -31.0% 34% 32% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.0% 32% -18.5%
10% ← realistic here -37.6% 29% -26.3%
15% -43.7% 29% -33.4%
20% -49.2% 25% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -55% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$39 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$309
Realized−$324
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses22 / 43
Est. fees paid−$54
Open positions6
Markets (closed)65 / 88
History coverage7d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day22.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Bosnia and Herzegovina 49¢ 50¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Morocco 64¢ 64¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Under 57¢ 57¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Over 62¢ 62¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Brazil 51¢ 50¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Morocco 40¢ 40¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $101 +$82 +80%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 23 $92 −$90 -98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $51 +$44 +86%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $262 +$109 +41%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $20 −$11 -54%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $31 −$11 -37%
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) Jun 23 $152 +$179 +118%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $12 −$12 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $101 −$89 -88%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$1 -5%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $154 −$150 -98%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $81 +$54 +67%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $548 −$540 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $132 +$208 +157%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $71 +$46 +64%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $5 $0 -5%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $61 +$67 +109%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $222 +$96 +43%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $42 −$42 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $30 +$32 +105%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $118 +$98 +83%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $5 +$28 +549%
Spread: Japan (-3.5) Jun 21 $5 +$14 +283%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $66 +$12 +18%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $61 +$22 +37%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $132 +$101 +76%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -97%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $92 −$90 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $51 +$44 +86%
United States vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $81 −$80 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $20 +$19 +93%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $51 +$34 +67%
Korea Republic to score first vs. Mexico? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $41 +$31 +76%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $40 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $30 1h
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 40¢ $20 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 64¢ $71 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $51 1h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 49¢ $102 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) AND Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 AND Will Me BUY 8¢ $10 1h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Spread BUY 16¢ $10 1h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Sprea BUY 3¢ $5 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $51 14h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 54¢ $51 14h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 43¢ $51 19h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $94 19h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 53¢ $51 19h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL Ghana 88¢ $64 20h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Ghana 69¢ $50 20h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL Ghana 67¢ $307 20h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Ghana 45¢ $110 21h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Ghana 45¢ $102 21h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 20¢ $9 21h
Spread: England (-2.5) SELL England 26¢ $19 21h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY 29¢ $20 21h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Spread: England (-2.5) AND Spread: Croatia BUY 11¢ $15 22h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 44¢ $41 22h
Spread: England (-2.5) AND Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY 20¢ $20 22h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $20 22h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 40¢ $31 22h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) SELL Portugal 100¢ $331 22h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 38¢ $12 23h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Uzbekistan 7¢ $12 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $309.46 · official $344.46 · 154 history records