Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:17:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
06 0x06c8…38f1 politics 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 17L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$379per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 57% −$5
other 36% −$3
crypto 3% $0
sports 2% $0
world 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 17 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,037) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage75d
Avg bet$379
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $1,079 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $75 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,085 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $1,037 −$3 -0%
Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $47 $0 -0%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Jun 16 $50 $0 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $1,161 −$1 -0%
Will Paula Badosa be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 16 $1,113 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 13 $178 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 13 $28 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $192 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 07 $27 $0 -0%
Will Clara Tauson be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Apr 06 $62 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 03 $168 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 03 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 03 $97 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,077 34m
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $75 42m
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 49m
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,051 58m
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 1h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 1h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $135 1h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $13 1h
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $827 2h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $15 2h
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $208 2h
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $1,037 2h
Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $47 23h
Iran coup attempt by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $50 23h
Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 23h
Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 23h
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,159 23h
Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 24h
Iran coup attempt by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $36 24h
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,146 24h
Will Paula Badosa be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL No 100¢ $806 25h
Will Paula Badosa be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL No 100¢ $306 25h
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 25h
Iran coup attempt by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $14 25h
Will Paula Badosa be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 100¢ $1,113 25h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $178 65d
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $23 65d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $129 65d
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $16 65d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 53 history records