Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T13:34:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

06
0x06c8…a711
other · 46 markets active 1h ago
4.0score
+$48 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$47 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$88
Realized+$47
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses20 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage296d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 1 History 45 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$31
14 days+$31
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 86¢ $87 $88 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $6 $0 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $83 +$3 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $58 +$8 +14%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $49 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $60 +$18 +30%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $31 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $29 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $1 $0 -18%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $7 $0 +4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $29 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $60 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 24 $29 +$1 +4%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Dec 12 $12 +$17 +133%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 23 $25 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 22 $24 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 22 $12 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 21 $12 $0 -0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 21 $12 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Nov 19 $16 −$4 -24%
Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" in 2025? Oct 23 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 20 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $10 $0 +4%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $30 +$2 +5%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Sep 27 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 11 $34 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $145 in August? Sep 02 $5 $0 +4%
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $2 $0 -16%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 25 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 24 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 24 $1 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 24 $35 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 23 $38 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Aug 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 23 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $4000 on August 22? Aug 22 $40 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 22 $40 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 45% +$32
other 22% +$20
sports 11% $0
politics 11% −$4
crypto 6% $0
culture 4% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $48 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $2 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $37 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $6 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $6 5h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $35 13h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $32 13h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $10 13h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $9 13h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 75¢ $4 14h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 75¢ $57 14h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 75¢ $22 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 16h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 16h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $12 20h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 25h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 25h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 26h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $66 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 29¢ $58 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +7.8% -2.5% 86% 29% -0.3%
≤30d 12 +3.4% -6.4% 67% 17% -3.0%
≤90d 12 +3.4% -6.4% 67% 17% -3.0%
all 45 +3.6% -6.3% 44% 9% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 9% -5.3%
10% -15.2% 4% -14.4%
15% -23.4% 2% -22.6%
20% -30.9% 2% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.87 · official $87.87 (match) · 152 history records