Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:51:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x06c5…b901 other 149 markets active 2h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$321 (-6%) realized −$327 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate34%51W / 97L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$424
politics 6% −$19
sports 4% +$42
crypto 2% +$36
culture 2% +$75
world 1% −$17
tech 0% −$15
economics 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -33.8% -40.1% 33% 33% -16.8%
≤30d 3 -33.8% -40.1% 33% 33% -16.8%
≤90d 74 -57.7% -61.8% 16% 16% -32.9%
all 148 -10.0% -18.6% 34% 29% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 29% -14.8%
10% -26.4% 24% -22.9%
15% -33.5% 19% -30.4%
20% -40.0% 14% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +38% → late -58% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$18 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized−$327
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses51 / 97
Open positions1
Markets (closed)148 / 149
History coverage141d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 148 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 70¢ 76¢ $74 $79 +$6 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $10 −$9 -84%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $51 −$18 -34%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $87 +$15 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? Apr 14 $60 −$59 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? Apr 14 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Apr 13 $70 −$69 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Apr 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Apr 13 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Apr 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Apr 12 $59 −$58 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? Apr 11 $100 +$39 +39%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 10 $58 +$39 +68%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April? Apr 08 $18 −$17 -93%
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? Apr 08 $52 −$2 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? Apr 08 $41 +$13 +30%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? Apr 08 $19 −$18 -93%
Will Elon Musk post 1680-1759 tweets in May 2026? Apr 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 02 $152 −$152 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026? Apr 01 $152 −$8 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 31 $134 +$108 +80%
Will Elon Musk post 1280-1319 tweets in March 2026? Mar 31 $172 −$55 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026? Mar 30 $162 +$115 +71%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 29 $1 $0 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 1840-1919 tweets in May 2026? Mar 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Mar 28 $186 +$53 +28%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Mar 28 $36 +$4 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026 Mar 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Sweden win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Mar 27 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 20+ times during t Mar 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Mar 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Mar 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Mar 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Mar 27 $108 −$21 -20%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FUT Esports (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Sta Mar 27 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Trump say "Terrorist" or "Terrorism" during Honduran President ev Mar 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Mar 27 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Mar 27 $114 −$17 -15%
Will Finland win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Ol Mar 27 $279 −$28 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026? Mar 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 27 $101 +$85 +84%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026 Mar 27 $86 −$86 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026? Mar 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 WM Phoenix Open? Mar 27 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Trump say "Drug" during Honduran President events? Mar 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Mar 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Mar 27 $18 −$14 -78%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Mar 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $75 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $34 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 10h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 11h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $87 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $60 65d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 65d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 65d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $70 67d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 67d
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 67d
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 67d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 68d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $0 68d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $53 68d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $139 68d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $100 69d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 70d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 70d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $27 70d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 71d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April? BUY Yes 1¢ $8 71d
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? SELL $60k 50¢ $50 71d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $54 71d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? BUY Yes 2¢ $7 71d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? BUY Yes 2¢ $12 71d
Will Elon Musk post 1680-1759 tweets in May 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 72d
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? BUY $60k 52¢ $0 72d
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? BUY $60k 52¢ $41 72d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.35 · official $78.30 · 880 history records