Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:33:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
06 0x06c4…7b1e world 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 89d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$99 (+2%) realized +$99 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$1,297per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 89d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 93% +$99
other 7% +$117
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +20.3% +8.8% 100% 50% +13.9%
≤30d 2 +20.3% +8.8% 100% 50% +13.9%
≤90d 5 -11.2% -19.7% 80% 20% -6.5%
all 5 -11.2% -19.7% 80% 20% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 20% -6.5%
10% -27.4% 20% -15.5%
15% -34.4% 20% -23.6%
20% -40.8% 0% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% too few recent
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$1 · ×54.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×217.5 per $1 lost it wins $217.5
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$99
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage89d
Avg bet$1,297
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $153 +$4 +3%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $299 +$113 +38%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 24 $3,032 +$81 +3%
Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by March 31? Apr 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 03 $3,000 +$19 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 100¢ $157 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 97¢ $153 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 92¢ $412 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 66¢ $299 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? SELL No 99¢ $3,113 59d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 97¢ $3,032 80d
Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by March 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 88d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $3,000 88d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 10 history records