Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:31:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

06 0x06c3…7e69 sports 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$122 (-4%) realized +$287 · open −$409

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip

Net edge-30%after slip

Net WR24%break-even

Win rate24%4W / 13L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$152per market

Trades / day2.9pace

Fees−$51est.

Kalshi-fit75%portable

Net worth$211now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$235

7 days−$17

14 days−$17

30 days−$20

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +24%

net ROI/market (all)-29.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	16	-23.5%	-30.8%	25%	25%	-10.2%
≤30d	17	-22.4%	-29.8%	24%	24%	-10.3%
≤90d	17	-22.4%	-29.8%	24%	24%	-10.3%
all	17	-22.4%	-29.8%	24%	24%	-10.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.9 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-29.8%	24%	-10.3%
10%	-36.5%	24%	-18.9%
15%	-42.7%	24%	-26.7%
20%	-48.3%	24%	-33.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 29% · top 2 56% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -22% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +6% → late -48% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$189 vs −$60 · ×3.17 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.97 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage

Net worth$211

Realized+$287

Unrealized−$409

Win rate (resolved)24%

Wins / losses4 / 13

Est. fees paid−$51

Open positions2

Markets (closed)17 / 20

History coverage16d

Avg bet$152

Trades / day2.9

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	Belgium	38¢	36¢	$220	$211	−$9 (-4%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	Spain	33¢	0¢	$400	$0	−$400 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$202	−$1	-1%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$102	−$100	-98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5	Jun 14	$15	−$15	-98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$244	−$73	-30%
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	Jun 14	$294	+$208	+71%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	Jun 13	$203	−$200	-98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5	Jun 13	$50	−$25	-50%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5	Jun 13	$31	−$30	-98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5	Jun 13	$204	−$41	-20%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5	Jun 13	$102	−$62	-61%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$203	+$217	+107%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5	Jun 13	$102	+$161	+158%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$109	−$106	-98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	Jun 11	$249	+$169	+68%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)	Jun 11	$101	−$19	-19%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$102	−$100	-98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	May 30	$68	−$3	-5%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	BUY Belgium	38¢	$224	11m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	64¢	$201	12m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	64¢	$101	1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	BUY Spain	23¢	$205	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	62¢	$101	5h
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	BUY Spain	58¢	$101	5h
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	BUY Spain	56¢	$101	9h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	32¢	$102	20h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	18¢	$15	21h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	34¢	$37	21h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	36¢	$41	21h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	18¢	$37	21h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	47¢	$102	22h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	SELL Under	52¢	$97	22h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	53¢	$101	22h
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	SELL Germany	94¢	$502	23h
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	BUY Germany	54¢	$294	26h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	45¢	$203	46h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5	SELL Over	21¢	$24	46h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	19¢	$31	46h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5	SELL Over	24¢	$1	46h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	40¢	$36	46h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	41¢	$15	46h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)	BUY	15¢	$31	2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	24¢	$163	2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	24¢	$0	2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	23¢	$102	2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5	SELL Over	7¢	$40	2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	18¢	$102	2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	41¢	$102	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $211.07 · official $211.68 (match) · 46 history records