Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:31:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x06c0…e691 other 238 markets active 1h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$66 (-0%) realized −$66 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%10W / 227L
Whale WR12%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$209per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$14
14 days−$22
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$37
sports 22% −$15
politics 9% −$7
culture 7% −$8
crypto 7% −$4
economics 6% −$4
world 5% −$4
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 75 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 176 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 237 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 12% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses10 / 227
Whale WR (big bets)12%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)237 / 238
History coverage129d
Avg bet$209
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 237 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $188 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $115 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $351 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $236 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $169 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $363 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $113 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $193 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $433 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $197 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 16 $442 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $364 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $363 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $124 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $54 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $430 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $330 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $447 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $54 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $369 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $195 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $343 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $110 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 13 $369 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 12 $417 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $214 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $281 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $272 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $183 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $277 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $430 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 10 $404 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $268 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $783 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $56 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $233 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $57 $0 -1%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $183 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $240 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $429 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $475 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $189 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $290 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $504 −$1 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $278 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 04 $233 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $128 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $304 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $235 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 35m
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 1h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 3h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $51 7h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $52 9h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $52 10h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $52 11h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $52 20h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $52 22h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $52 23h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $52 25h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $52 26h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $52 28h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $52 29h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $52 31h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $52 32h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $52 34h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $52 38h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $52 40h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $38 41h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $38 42h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $52 45h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $52 47h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $52 2d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $53 2d
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 2d
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $53 2d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $53 2d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $53 2d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $53 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.35 · official $51.35 (match) · 1315 history records