Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:40:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
06 0x06be…9413 sports 101 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$239 (+10%) realized +$239 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate59%60W / 41L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39
7 days−$39
14 days−$39
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% +$111
sports 35% +$91
world 11% +$16
crypto 10% −$22
politics 3% $0
finance 3% +$5
weather 1% −$12
tech 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -28.2% -35.0% 33% 33% -47.3%
≤30d 3 -28.2% -35.0% 33% 33% -47.3%
≤90d 101 +10.2% -0.3% 59% 52% -2.8%
all 101 +10.2% -0.3% 59% 52% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.3% 52% -2.8%
10% -9.9% 37% -12.1%
15% -18.6% 24% -20.6%
20% -26.6% 16% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$9 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$239
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses60 / 41
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)101 / 101
History coverage84d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 101 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$18 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$5 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $53 −$26 -48%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? May 09 $29 +$13 +44%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 08 $3 −$1 -26%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? May 05 $74 +$25 +34%
Will Trump say "Trump-Kennedy Center" or "Trump Kennedy" in April? May 01 $5 $0 -5%
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? May 01 $12 $0 +4%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $14 −$3 -21%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner Apr 25 $18 −$7 -37%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $19 +$24 +128%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $17 −$12 -70%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 24 $111 +$6 +5%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner Apr 23 $14 −$2 -12%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner Apr 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic - Game 2 Winner Apr 23 $13 −$4 -28%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic - Game 1 Winner Apr 23 $7 +$3 +38%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs South America Rejects (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Play Apr 23 $3 +$2 +75%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 22 $113 +$5 +4%
Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians Apr 22 $18 +$4 +21%
LoL: paiN Gaming Academy vs RMD Gaming (BO1) - Circuito Desafiante Reg Apr 22 $22 +$3 +12%
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winner Apr 21 $92 +$13 +14%
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 21 $13 +$12 +86%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner Apr 20 $4 −$3 -80%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 20 $88 +$4 +4%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Apr 20 $17 +$4 +26%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Apr 20 $9 +$5 +56%
Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs 1win (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group A Apr 20 $10 +$7 +67%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 20 $23 +$6 +24%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs South America Rejects (BO3) - PGL Wallachia G Apr 20 $15 −$12 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 5°C on April 19? Apr 19 $10 −$5 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 6°C on April 19? Apr 19 $16 −$3 -20%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 19 $62 +$16 +27%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 19 $59 +$9 +15%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 18? Apr 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 18 $33 +$13 +40%
Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Ilbirs eSports (BO3) - European Pro League Pl Apr 18 $26 +$3 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $22 −$22 -100%
BMW Open: Alexander Zverev vs Francisco Cerundolo Apr 17 $46 +$4 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? Apr 16 $3 +$6 +195%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $12 +$4 +34%
Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 14 $11 +$15 +137%
Will CZ post 60-79 posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $39 +$14 +36%
Will CZ post 40-59 posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Apr 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Apr 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 10 $21 −$18 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 09 $9 +$1 +13%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $45 −$45 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 8, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 08 $11 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down $7 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $7 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $40 1h
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $99 42d
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? BUY No 50¢ $52 49d
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? BUY No 50¢ $22 49d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Liquid 10¢ $0 52d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 31¢ $5 52d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 59¢ $11 52d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 71¢ $14 52d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 53d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 53d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 53d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $19 53d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? SELL Yes $5 53d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? BUY Yes $5 53d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? BUY Yes $12 53d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 98¢ $117 53d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 97¢ $5 54d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Spirit $1 54d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Spirit $1 54d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Spirit $0 54d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Spirit 16¢ $1 54d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 80¢ $7 54d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 369 history records