Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:41:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x06be…8a46 sports 667 markets active 0h ago coverage 567d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,811 (-7%) realized −$1,817 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate31%204W / 459L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$339
7 days+$483
14 days+$483
30 days+$483
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$1,263
sports 31% +$769
crypto 25% −$1,142
politics 1% −$175
world 0% −$33
culture 0% +$30
tech 0% +$6
economics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +134.9% +112.5% 39% 35% +69.9%
≤30d 23 +134.9% +112.5% 39% 35% +69.9%
≤90d 29 +112.1% +91.9% 34% 31% +67.3%
all 663 -4.0% -13.2% 31% 28% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 28% -16.7%
10% -21.5% 26% -24.7%
15% -29.1% 23% -32.0%
20% -36.0% 20% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +88% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$21 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

567d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized−$1,817
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses204 / 459
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions4
Markets (closed)663 / 667
History coverage567d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 663 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Over 6¢ 6¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+8%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Over 25¢ 24¢ $25 $24 −$0 (-2%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 4.5 Over 9¢ 8¢ $9 $8 −$0 (-6%)
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) Uzbekistan 0¢ 2¢ $0 $4 +$4 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 87 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $33 −$18 -53%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $51 +$199 +388%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $44 −$42 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $25 +$75 +307%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $29 +$3 +9%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $23 +$77 +344%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $17 +$85 +500%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $4 +$96 +2400%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $99 +$51 +52%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $66 −$66 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $18 +$48 +259%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $25 −$24 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $14 +$86 +596%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $8 −$8 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $9 −$9 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? Mar 29 $10 −$9 -91%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? Mar 29 $6 +$38 +639%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? Mar 29 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? Mar 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? Mar 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Hawks vs. Mavericks Mar 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? Mar 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Mar 18 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Galatasaray SK end in a draw? Mar 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? Mar 18 $42 −$42 -100%
Warriors vs. Knicks Mar 16 $13 +$10 +80%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 1.5 Mar 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 1.5 Mar 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 16? Mar 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix? Mar 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix? Mar 15 $27 −$15 -56%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix? Mar 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Pierre Gasly win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix? Mar 15 $2 +$4 +233%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix? Mar 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix? Mar 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix? Mar 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Arvid Lindblad win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix? Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix? Mar 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Hornets vs. Lakers Jan 16 $61 −$61 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 14? Jan 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 2¢ $4 0m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 9¢ $9 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $26 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 6¢ $0 10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 6¢ $0 10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 6¢ $1 10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 6¢ $1 10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 6¢ $0 10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 6¢ $0 10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 6¢ $0 10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 6¢ $0 10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 6¢ $0 10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 6¢ $1 10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 6¢ $0 11h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 6¢ $1 13h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 6¢ $0 13h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 6¢ $1 13h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 2¢ $2 13h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 8¢ $5 13h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 9¢ $1 13h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 9¢ $7 13h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 6¢ $23 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 16¢ $41 24h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 13¢ $33 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 17¢ $44 24h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $51 24h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $23 38h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $8 38h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $20 46h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 52¢ $13 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.00 · official $70.00 (match) · 2760 history records