Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:02:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
06 0x06b7…09c5 other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 491d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate41%7W / 10L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% $0
other 28% +$1
sports 10% +$1
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.9% -8.7% 33% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 7 +0.6% -9.0% 29% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 7 +0.6% -9.0% 29% 0% -9.1%
all 17 +1.5% -8.2% 41% 6% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 6% -8.8%
10% -17.0% 0% -17.5%
15% -25.0% 0% -25.5%
20% -32.3% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.35 per $1 lost it wins $5.35
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

491d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses7 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage491d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 24 $78 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $47 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $47 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $9 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $30 +$2 +5%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $46 $0 -1%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 28 $8 $0 +5%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 21 $5 $0 +1%
Fordham vs. George Mason Mar 20 $9 +$1 +15%
Baylor vs. Cincinnati Feb 25 $9 $0 -2%
Tel Aviv bus bomber arrested by Friday? Feb 25 $0 $0 +0%
Austin Peay vs. West Georgia Feb 25 $10 $0 +0%
Appalachian State vs. Georgia Southern Feb 25 $9 $0 +0%
Aleo airdrop in Q1 2025? Feb 25 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $43 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 7h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 9h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 64¢ $44 21h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 64¢ $44 23h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $47 28h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $47 30h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $15 34h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $33 34h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $47 36h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $9 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $9 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $25 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $12 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $22 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $32 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $30 2d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $46 29d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $46 33d
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $1 342d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL No 97¢ $9 362d
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $1 363d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? BUY No 92¢ $8 430d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? SELL Yes 32¢ $5 430d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? BUY Yes 32¢ $4 432d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 432d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $1 443d
Fordham vs. George Mason BUY George Mason 87¢ $9 484d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.66 · official $42.66 (match) · 47 history records