Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:48:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
06 0x06b5…dc6a other 97 markets active 2h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$790 (-1%) realized −$790 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate8%8W / 88L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$667per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$542now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$9
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$851
politics 34% −$33
world 3% −$1
culture 2% −$2
sports 2% +$81
economics 1% −$1
crypto 1% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 80 +0.2% -9.3% 10% 6% -10.9%
all 96 -0.9% -10.3% 8% 5% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 5% -10.7%
10% -18.9% 5% -19.2%
15% -26.7% 4% -27.0%
20% -33.9% 4% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$793) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$11 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$542
Realized−$790
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses8 / 88
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)96 / 97
History coverage96d
Avg bet$667
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $542 $542 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 26 $1,715 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 26 $264 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 25 $229 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $729 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $1,003 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $1,241 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,369 −$2 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $1,174 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $684 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $785 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $770 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $793 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $1,197 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $575 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $824 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $768 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? Jun 04 $189 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? Jun 04 $279 +$1 +0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $1,407 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $755 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $469 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $812 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $695 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $755 −$1 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $714 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $707 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $549 −$1 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $609 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $817 −$1 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5 May 21 $34 +$28 +83%
Texas Rangers vs. Colorado Rockies May 21 $44 −$44 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs May 20 $45 +$42 +93%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $200 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $200 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 07 $201 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $202 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $945 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $201 $0 -0%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-02? May 05 $808 −$808 -100%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $866 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $1,563 −$2 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $709 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $710 −$1 -0%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 22 $15 +$31 +206%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 22 $55 +$17 +31%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $633 −$1 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $1,516 −$2 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $809 −$1 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $847 −$1 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $624 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $264 1h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $264 5h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $264 5h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $264 11h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $228 23h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $229 28h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $542 5d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $903 10d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $904 10d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $728 10d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $729 10d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $802 10d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $803 11d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $694 11d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $695 11d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $673 12d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $674 12d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $758 14d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $759 14d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $683 14d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $684 14d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $784 14d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $785 14d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $769 15d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $770 15d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $791 19d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $793 19d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $993 20d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $994 20d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $574 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $542.45 · official $542.45 (match) · 253 history records