Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:16:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
06 0x06b2…9f35 crypto 287 markets active 6h ago coverage 177d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 176d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$43,674 (-40%) realized −$56,602 · open +$12,928
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%127W / 287L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$379per market
Trades / day18.5pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$28,537now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 177d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% −$2,472
finance 49% +$7,407
sports 0% −$472
other 0% +$726
economics 0% +$3
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-39.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 139 -84.4% -85.9% 6% 5% -80.3%
≤30d 146 -82.0% -83.8% 8% 6% -78.7%
≤90d 147 -81.4% -83.2% 8% 7% -78.7%
all 414 -33.6% -39.9% 31% 29% -59.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.9% 29% -59.5%
10% -45.7% 21% -63.4%
15% -50.9% 18% -66.9%
20% -55.7% 14% -70.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -77% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -56% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late -58% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
11.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$249 vs −$481 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

177d coverage
Net worth$28,537
Realized−$56,602
Unrealized+$12,928
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses127 / 287
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)414 / 287
History coverage177d ⚠
Avg bet$379
Trades / day18.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 414 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? Down 43¢ 100¢ $7,400 $17,209 +$9,808 (+133%)
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 16? Up 72¢ 99¢ $8,207 $11,328 +$3,121 (+38%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$2 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 204 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $450 −$450 -100%
Will Lille OSC win on 2025-08-30? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 21, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $156 −$156 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? Jun 16 $273 −$273 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 21, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Wolves win on 2025-08-30? Jun 16 $116 −$116 -100%
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-10-19? Jun 16 $311 −$349 -112%
Aces vs. Storm Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix? Jun 16 $92 −$92 -100%
Will Tottenham vs. Aston Villa end in a draw? Jun 16 $236 −$236 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-10-19? Jun 16 $138 −$138 -100%
Dodgers vs. Pirates Jun 16 $6,236 −$6,236 -100%
California vs. Oregon State Jun 16 $61 −$61 -100%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-08-31? Jun 16 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix? Jun 16 $166 −$166 -100%
Will 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2025-08-30? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Parma win on 2025-08-30? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? Jun 16 $91 −$91 -100%
Will Napoli win on 2025-08-30? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Saints vs. Chargers Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 21, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $1,856 −$1,856 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 21, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? Jun 16 $11,753 −$11,753 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach end in a draw? Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-10-18? Jun 16 $5,741 −$6,107 -106%
ATP Umag – Taberner vs. De Jong Jun 16 $1,884 −$1,884 -100%
ATP Cincinnati - Sinner vs. Mannarino Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Cubs vs. Braves Jun 16 $675 −$675 -100%
Nevada vs. Penn State Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Angers SCO win on 2025-08-31? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? Jun 16 $788 −$565 -72%
Will Alaves vs. Atletico Madrid end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,103 −$1,103 -100%
MLS: Will Sporting Kansas City beat Seattle Sounders? Jun 16 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Adam Scott win the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Ser Jun 16 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Dying for Sex win the Emmy for Outstanding Limited or Anthology S Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-27? Jun 16 $3,084 −$3,084 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 21, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $133 −$133 -100%
Will Liverpool vs. Manchester United end in a draw? Jun 16 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano vs. Barcelona end in a draw? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 20, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will West Ham win on 2025-08-31? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Jaguars vs. Dolphins Jun 16 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 21, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Girona vs. Sevilla end in a draw? Jun 16 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 21, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $459 −$459 -100%
Will Union St. Gilloise win on 2025-09-16? Jun 16 $33 −$33 -100%
Will OGC Nice win on 2025-08-31? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Real Sociedad win on 2025-09-13? Jun 16 $178 −$178 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 71¢ $1,436 6h
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 71¢ $1,436 6h
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 71¢ $1,436 6h
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 70¢ $1,382 6h
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 70¢ $1,417 6h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 45¢ $1,258 6h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 44¢ $1,124 6h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 43¢ $444 6h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 42¢ $528 6h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 39¢ $400 6h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 42¢ $430 6h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 42¢ $430 6h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 42¢ $430 6h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 42¢ $430 6h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 42¢ $430 6h
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 81¢ $293 6h
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 81¢ $816 6h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 42¢ $359 7h
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 61¢ $82 7h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 39¢ $317 8h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 44¢ $81 9h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 48¢ $135 10h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 43¢ $88 11h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 48¢ $256 11h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 47¢ $57 11h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 46¢ $86 11h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 45¢ $62 11h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 44¢ $225 11h
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 84¢ $472 35h
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 84¢ $845 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28,537.27 · official $28,537.27 (match) · 3500 history records