Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:38:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x06b0…5e05 world 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 531d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate33%23W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$2
other 21% −$5
politics 18% −$1
sports 10% +$1
economics 7% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.0% -8.7% 29% 0% -8.3%
≤30d 25 +0.1% -9.4% 32% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 61 -0.3% -9.8% 30% 0% -9.4%
all 70 -1.8% -11.2% 33% 1% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 1% -9.6%
10% -19.7% 1% -18.3%
15% -27.4% 1% -26.2%
20% -34.5% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 78% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

531d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses23 / 47
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)70 / 70
History coverage531d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 70 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $40 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $36 $0 -0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $36 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $37 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $40 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $69 +$5 +7%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $80 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $42 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $36 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $40 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $71 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $2 $0 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $2 $0 +3%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $35 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $61 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $55 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $105 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $15 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $75 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $35 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $32 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $42 −$1 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $96 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $36 −$1 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $7 −$1 -16%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $34 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $52 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $103 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $11 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 14 $38 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $76 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $34 $0 -1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $34 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $35 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $78 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $35 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 14 $69 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $35 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $73 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 13 $35 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $87 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $34 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 11 $69 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 08 $2 $0 +3%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $34 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $35 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $2 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 67¢ $13 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 67¢ $27 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 67¢ $40 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $22 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $14 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $36 10h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $3 13h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $33 13h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $36 17h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $37 20h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $37 20h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $40 28h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $40 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $40 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $39 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 45¢ $28 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 45¢ $3 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 45¢ $2 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 45¢ $28 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $35 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $36 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $23 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 284 history records