Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:53:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

06
0x06ae…0a09
weather · 1121 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$723 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$576 · open +$104
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4,084
Realized+$576
Unrealized+$104
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses1052 / 15
Open positions54
Markets (closed)1067 / 1121
History coverage41d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day65.1
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 54 History 1067 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$52
7 days+$183
14 days+$454
30 days+$449
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $772 $805 +$32 (+4%)
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31? No 82¢ 92¢ $444 $500 +$56 (+13%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 61°F or below on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $224 $226 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $200 $202 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $183 $183 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 65°F or below on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $181 $182 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on June 14? No 97¢ 95¢ $163 $160 −$3 (-2%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $149 $150 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 14? No 96¢ 98¢ $138 $140 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 14? No 97¢ 96¢ $119 $117 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $109 $110 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C or higher on June 14? No 98¢ 99¢ $101 $102 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 14? No 98¢ 98¢ $78 $79 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 14? No 97¢ 99¢ $73 $74 +$2 (+2%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $67 $68 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 96°F or higher on June 14? No 96¢ 99¢ $59 $61 +$2 (+3%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on June 13? No 98¢ 99¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on June 14? No 95¢ 96¢ $59 $60 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 14? No 99¢ 97¢ $59 $58 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on June 14? No 98¢ 99¢ $56 $57 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 29°C or higher on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $51 $52 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 14? No 96¢ 96¢ $49 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $49 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 63°F or below on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 83°F or below on June 12? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 12? Jun 13 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 98°F or higher on June 12? Jun 13 $8 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 68-69°F on June 12? Jun 13 $27 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 66-67°F on June 12? Jun 13 $55 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 98°F or higher on June 12? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 100°F or higher on June 12? Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 13 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 13 $23 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 88°F or higher on June Jun 13 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 86-87°F on June Jun 13 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on June Jun 13 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 12? Jun 13 $51 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $29 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 34°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $22 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 36°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $163 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $34 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 12? Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 41°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 12? Jun 12 $53 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $14 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 12? Jun 12 $23 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $29 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $13 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on June Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $19 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C or higher on June 12 Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $60 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 96% +$390
other 3% +$234
world 1% +$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 96¢ $0 15m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $30 16m
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 65°F or below on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $33 17m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 83°F or below on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $5 17m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 96¢ $14 19m
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun SELL No 100¢ $14 20m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 96¢ $7 21m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $12 28m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 96¢ $9 30m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $5 31m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $11 31m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C or higher on June BUY No 99¢ $10 31m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $14 32m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 100°F or higher on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $2 34m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 98°F or higher on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $8 34m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 100°F or higher on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $18 34m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $9 38m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 96¢ $85 40m
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 68-69°F on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $13 40m
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 66-67°F on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $42 40m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 98°F or higher on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $20 41m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $10 45m
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 65°F or below on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $14 46m
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 66-67°F on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $14 46m
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 68-69°F on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $14 46m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $10 47m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 29°C or higher on June BUY No 99¢ $25 53m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 96°F or higher on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $8 54m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 100°F or higher on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $30 55m
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 67°F or below on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $5 56m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 353 +1.5% -8.2% 100% 1% -8.2%
≤30d 757 +0.7% -8.9% 99% 1% -8.1%
≤90d 1067 +2.7% -7.1% 99% 1% -8.3%
all 1067 +2.7% -7.1% 99% 1% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover65.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.1% 1% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -16.0% 0% -17.1%
15% -24.1% 0% -25.1%
20% -31.5% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,083.87 · official $4,083.87 (match) · 3500 history records