Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:11:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
06 0x06ac…79ec world 124 markets active 3h ago coverage 118d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 118d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$9,370 (-1%) realized −$20,869 · open +$11,499
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate62%73W / 44L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5,277per market
Trades / day26.8pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$60,482now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 118d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% −$689
finance 27% +$22,750
other 6% +$2,786
politics 3% +$3,783
sports 0% −$148
crypto 0% −$753
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +8.3% -2.0% 78% 56% -0.9%
≤30d 31 +54.0% +39.3% 65% 42% -5.5%
≤90d 83 +23.1% +11.4% 66% 41% +0.8%
all 117 +12.1% +1.4% 62% 39% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.4% 39% -6.9%
10% -8.3% 21% -15.8%
15% ← realistic here -17.2% 14% -23.9%
20% -25.3% 10% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$4,880) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
16.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,197 vs −$1,654 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$60,482
Realized−$20,869
Unrealized+$11,499
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses73 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions7
Markets (closed)117 / 124
History coverage118d ⚠
Avg bet$5,277
Trades / day26.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 85¢ 94¢ $28,031 $30,855 +$2,824 (+10%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 67¢ 96¢ $18,104 $25,904 +$7,800 (+43%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 68¢ 99¢ $1,994 $2,919 +$925 (+46%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 60¢ 98¢ $369 $598 +$229 (+62%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 36¢ 14¢ $376 $151 −$225 (-60%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 22¢ 26¢ $29 $33 +$5 (+16%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $81 $23 −$58 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $480 +$520 +108%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $1,220 +$40 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 17 $13,843 +$2,406 +17%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $330 −$330 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $28,791 +$5,555 +19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $27,044 −$1,945 -7%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 15 $9,958 +$1,716 +17%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? Jun 14 $199 +$30 +15%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $2,253 +$28 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $14,326 −$5,006 -35%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $564 +$79 +14%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 08 $2,247 +$517 +23%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $15 +$985 +6567%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $759 +$39 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $3,770 +$1,148 +30%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30? Jun 02 $330 −$330 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $1,315 −$5 -0%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 01 $350 −$176 -50%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $5,370 +$1,410 +26%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $144 +$12 +8%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $910 +$90 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $3,640 +$360 +10%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 26 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? May 26 $690 −$690 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? May 26 $640 −$640 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 26 $1,827 −$1,827 -100%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? May 25 $3,690 +$210 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 25 $4,880 +$946 +19%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 24 $5,360 +$1,505 +28%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 24 $1,901 +$270 +14%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 May 23 $590 −$60 -10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 19 $35 +$5 +13%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 18 $410 −$293 -72%
Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 18 $690 +$302 +44%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? May 13 $500 −$151 -30%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 12 $480 −$240 -50%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 12 $570 −$533 -94%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 12 $632 −$434 -69%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 12 $344 −$149 -43%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 12 $221 +$4 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 12 $6,600 +$6,870 +104%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 12 $10,131 +$10,126 +100%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30? May 01 $70 −$70 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? May 01 $7,860 +$1,411 +18%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? May 01 $9,621 +$1,057 +11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? May 01 $5,246 +$351 +7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April? May 01 $2,771 +$224 +8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? May 01 $28,788 +$2,562 +9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 30 $13,097 −$180 -1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026? Apr 25 $1,196 +$1,198 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $21 3h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $48 11h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 60¢ $369 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 90¢ $900 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 90¢ $1,800 21h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $4,650 28h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 72¢ $635 28h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 72¢ $85 28h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $1,600 29h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $240 29h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $704 29h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $1,513 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 91¢ $1,820 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $1,820 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 92¢ $3,680 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 92¢ $3,680 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $1,119 40h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $2,561 40h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 90¢ $3,600 42h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $1,492 47h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 31¢ $310 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $480 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 86¢ $2,580 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $349 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $911 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 34¢ $325 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 34¢ $2 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 34¢ $2 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 34¢ $11 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 38¢ $380 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60,482.08 · official $60,482.08 (match) · 3500 history records