Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:31:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x06ab…83cc crypto 246 markets active 2h ago coverage 216d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$82 (+0%) realized +$80 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate92%218W / 19L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$611now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$7
14 days−$48
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$43
finance 3% +$58
tech 1% −$5
sports 1% −$6
other 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -7.2% -16.1% 90% 5% -10.0%
≤30d 85 -1.0% -10.4% 92% 8% -9.3%
≤90d 154 -0.2% -9.7% 95% 5% -9.1%
all 237 -0.4% -9.9% 92% 3% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 3% -9.1%
10% -18.5% 2% -17.8%
15% -26.4% 2% -25.8%
20% -33.6% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.78 per $1 lost it wins $1.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

216d coverage
Net worth$611
Realized+$80
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses218 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)237 / 246
History coverage216d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 237 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 21? No 100¢ 99¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 20? No 100¢ 99¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+0%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Over 92¢ 92¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Over 96¢ 94¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 +$1 +7%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $200 +$1 +0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $288 +$2 +1%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $10 +$1 +11%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $20 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 9? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +52%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $50 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $200 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on June 5? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $250 +$4 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 03 $50 −$50 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $100 +$1 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 1? Jun 02 $1 +$2 +204%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $50 $0 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on June 1? Jun 02 $50 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $68,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $272 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 30? May 31 $50 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 30? May 31 $100 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on May 29? May 30 $5 +$1 +22%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $380 on May 29? May 30 $10 $0 +2%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $460 on May 29? May 30 $10 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $39 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $100 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $100 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $100 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $50 43h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $10 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $10 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $10 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $10 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $10 2d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $50 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $10 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 98¢ $10 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $10 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $10 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $200 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $10 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $20 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $100 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $100 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $100 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $88 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $100 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $100 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $610.79 · official $610.81 (match) · 510 history records