Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:21:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
06 0x06ab…c964 crypto 414 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$564 (+2%) realized −$150 · open +$714
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%182W / 227L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day24.1pace
Fees−$58est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$1,935now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$116
7 days+$359
14 days+$753
30 days+$309
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% +$556
other 18% +$591
sports 14% −$488
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -9.5% -18.1% 46% 43% +6.7%
≤30d 239 -6.0% -15.0% 49% 47% -6.6%
≤90d 409 -8.7% -17.4% 44% 42% -9.0%
all 409 -8.7% -17.4% 44% 42% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.4% 42% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -25.3% 37% -17.7%
15% -32.5% 29% -25.7%
20% -39.1% 25% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$34 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$1,935
Realized−$150
Unrealized+$714
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses182 / 227
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions5
Markets (closed)409 / 414
History coverage46d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day24.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 409 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? Down 34¢ 56¢ $1,020 $1,687 +$667 (+65%)
Ethereum Up or Down on June 21? Down 46¢ 71¢ $97 $149 +$52 (+53%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 59¢ 60¢ $62 $63 +$1 (+1%)
BNB Up or Down on June 21? Down 29¢ 28¢ $38 $37 −$1 (-3%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 10PM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 208 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 2AM ET Jun 21 $504 +$110 +22%
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main Jun 21 $5 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8PM ET Jun 21 $7 −$6 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 7PM ET Jun 20 $19 −$18 -96%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $24 −$24 -99%
Dogecoin Up or Down on June 20? Jun 20 $58 +$59 +102%
Solana Up or Down on June 20? Jun 20 $66 +$33 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11AM ET Jun 20 $102 +$25 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? Jun 20 $33 +$69 +208%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$1 +10%
XRP Up or Down on June 20? Jun 20 $73 −$69 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 20? Jun 20 $96 −$25 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8AM ET Jun 20 $66 −$64 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2AM ET Jun 20 $43 +$25 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$54 +107%
BNB Up or Down on June 19? Jun 19 $64 +$41 +65%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $67 −$66 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$14 -94%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET Jun 17 $42 −$42 -100%
XRP Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $137 +$98 +71%
BNB Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$12 +62%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $229 +$94 +41%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$8 -95%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $155 +$134 +86%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9AM ET Jun 14 $19 +$33 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$16 +101%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$39 +388%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET Jun 14 $58 +$85 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9PM ET Jun 14 $59 +$90 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -94%
Solana Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $22 +$55 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $233 +$337 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -94%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $80 +$54 +67%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET Jun 12 $88 −$84 -95%
XRP Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $425 +$136 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $75 +$101 +134%
BNB Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $59 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $435 −$424 -97%
Solana Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $493 −$477 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET Jun 11 $33 −$20 -61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? BUY Down 40¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? BUY Down 33¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? BUY Down 35¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? BUY Down 33¢ $13 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 2AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $57 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 2AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $57 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 2AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $57 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 2AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $56 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 2AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $55 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 2AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $55 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 2AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $56 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 2AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $56 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 2AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $55 2h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 21? BUY Down 50¢ $43 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? BUY Down 33¢ $37 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? BUY Down 33¢ $46 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? BUY Down 32¢ $44 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? BUY Down 31¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? BUY Down 31¢ $43 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? BUY Down 31¢ $43 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? BUY Down 24¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? BUY Down 20¢ $23 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? BUY Down 27¢ $16 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? BUY Down 28¢ $13 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? BUY Down 32¢ $44 6h
BNB Up or Down on June 21? BUY Down 29¢ $40 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? BUY Down 34¢ $36 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? BUY Down 35¢ $37 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? BUY Down 35¢ $37 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? BUY Down 35¢ $10 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,935.39 · official $1,874.59 · 1295 history records