Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:15:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x06a8…a6cc crypto 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 255d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate74%23W / 8L
Whale WR14%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$809per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$157now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$7
sports 40% −$11
crypto 9% +$3
economics 8% +$1
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 2 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 4 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 31 -5.9% -14.9% 74% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 0% -9.6%
10% -23.0% 0% -18.2%
15% -30.4% 0% -26.1%
20% -37.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 14% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

255d coverage
Net worth$157
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses23 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)31 / 35
History coverage255d
Avg bet$809
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will XRP reach $2.00 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 100¢ 99¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 100¢ 99¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 100¢ 99¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in May? Jun 25 $33 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 25 $78 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m May 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in March? Apr 28 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on March 1? Mar 22 $28 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Feb 28 $58 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Feb 28 $108 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on February 12? Feb 14 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 27? Feb 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will Union Berlin win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? Jan 18 $3,800 −$4 -0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 18 $3,800 −$4 -0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 18 $3,811 −$4 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 13? Jan 18 $36 $0 +0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 07 $3,368 −$3 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 07 $3,391 −$3 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on January 5? Jan 07 $30 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 07 $32 $0 +0%
Will Base launch a token in 2025? Jan 05 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 19? Dec 27 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on December 9? Dec 19 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on December 6? Dec 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on November 29? Dec 06 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on November 27? Nov 28 $33 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 27 $2,026 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 27 $47 +$3 +7%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on October 29? Nov 27 $60 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on October 25? Oct 29 $60 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on October 20? Oct 21 $20 +$1 +4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 17 $2,063 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 14 $1,565 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will XRP reach $2.00 in June? BUY No 100¢ $48 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $38 32d
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $33 35d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $78 42d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $30 57d
Will Solana reach $160 in March? BUY No 100¢ $35 95d
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on March 1? BUY No 100¢ $28 116d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $58 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $108 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 117d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on February 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 133d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 149d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $36 156d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $35 156d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $38 156d
Will Union Berlin win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? SELL No 100¢ $3,796 158d
Will Union Berlin win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? BUY No 100¢ $3,800 158d
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $3,796 158d
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $3,800 158d
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $3,807 158d
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $3,811 158d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 13? BUY No 100¢ $36 163d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $3,365 169d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $3,368 169d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $3,385 169d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $3,388 169d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $3,388 169d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $3,391 169d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on January 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 171d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $32 177d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $156.58 · official $156.58 (match) · 233 history records