Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:16:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x06a3…9dde weather 158 markets active 0h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$25 (-1%) realized −$32 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate82%124W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$352now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$72
14 days−$77
30 days−$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 90% −$61
crypto 9% −$4
other 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 103 -2.0% -11.3% 95% 0% -12.2%
≤30d 144 -3.5% -12.7% 83% 9% -12.4%
≤90d 151 -1.1% -10.5% 82% 9% -12.2%
all 151 -1.1% -10.5% 82% 9% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 9% -12.2%
10% -19.1% 2% -20.6%
15% -26.9% 1% -28.2%
20% -34.1% 1% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$352
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses124 / 27
Open positions7
Markets (closed)151 / 158
History coverage34d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 151 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 17? No 95¢ 99¢ $51 $54 +$3 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 17? No 96¢ 100¢ $51 $53 +$2 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 17? No 96¢ 98¢ $51 $52 +$1 (+2%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 17? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 17? No 99¢ 99¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $50 −$48 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 17 Jun 17 $51 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 16? Jun 17 $50 +$3 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 16? Jun 17 $27 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $28 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $28 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $28 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $27 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 16? Jun 16 $27 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $27 +$1 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $27 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $27 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 16? Jun 16 $27 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $27 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $27 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 16 Jun 16 $27 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $27 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $27 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $27 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $27 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 15? Jun 16 $27 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 15? Jun 16 $26 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 16 $26 +$1 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 15? Jun 16 $26 +$1 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 15? Jun 16 $26 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $26 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $26 +$1 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $26 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $26 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $26 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 14? Jun 15 $26 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $26 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $26 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $26 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $31 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $26 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $26 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $31 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 14? Jun 14 $31 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $31 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $33 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $31 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $50 26m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $46 27m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $52 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $46 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 5¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 17 SELL No 100¢ $54 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $51 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $45 3h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $50 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $50 4h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 17 BUY No 95¢ $51 4h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $45 5h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $51 5h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $51 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $50 6h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $50 8h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $50 11h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $50 11h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $50 13h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $50 16h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $28 17h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $27 18h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $28 20h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $27 20h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $27 21h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $27 21h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $27 21h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $28 21h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $30 21h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $28 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $352.27 · official $351.48 (match) · 334 history records