Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:05:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x06a3…fa45 weather 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$202 (-6%) realized −$278 · open +$76
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate58%7W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$152per market
Trades / day30.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,397now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 77% −$280
sports 16% +$122
crypto 7% −$76
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-28.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -21.1% -28.6% 58% 17% -24.5%
≤30d 12 -21.1% -28.6% 58% 17% -24.5%
≤90d 12 -21.1% -28.6% 58% 17% -24.5%
all 12 -21.1% -28.6% 58% 17% -24.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.6% 17% -24.5%
10% ← realistic here -35.4% 17% -31.7%
15% -41.7% 0% -38.3%
20% -47.4% 0% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$97 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,397
Realized−$278
Unrealized+$76
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses7 / 5
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions9
Markets (closed)12 / 21
History coverage1d
Avg bet$152
Trades / day30.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? No 90¢ 100¢ $300 $331 +$31 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $200 $200 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $179 $182 +$3 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? No 98¢ 100¢ $142 $144 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 15? No 75¢ 97¢ $100 $130 +$30 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? No 94¢ 100¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? No 98¢ 100¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 15? No 94¢ 95¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $104 +$31 +29%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $503 +$122 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $101 −$80 -80%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 14? Jun 15 $207 +$3 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Jun Jun 15 $54 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $130 −$107 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? Jun 14 $398 −$242 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $57 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $111 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $150 +$9 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $55 −$55 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 98¢ $179 56m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $142 56m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 53¢ $135 59m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 15? SELL No 18¢ $20 1h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $503 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 90¢ $100 5h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $100 5h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $200 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $100 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $100 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 91¢ $201 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $100 5h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 86¢ $101 5h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 75¢ $101 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 10¢ $24 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 50¢ $27 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 50¢ $104 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $104 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? SELL No 36¢ $156 13h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? BUY No 81¢ $50 20h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? BUY No 89¢ $347 24h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Jun BUY No 98¢ $54 24h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 96¢ $57 24h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $152 24h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $55 24h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 85¢ $45 25h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 25h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $100 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,396.79 · official $1,396.80 (match) · 40 history records