Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:18:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
06 0x06a2…46c9 crypto 760 markets active 4h ago coverage 66d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 66d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,934 (+12%) realized +$1,934 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate53%403W / 357L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day44.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$70
14 days+$73
30 days+$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$915
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 +3.8% -6.1% 55% 53% -0.9%
≤30d 250 +2.4% -7.4% 51% 50% -7.3%
≤90d 760 +5.0% -5.0% 53% 51% -4.2%
all 760 +5.0% -5.0% 53% 51% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.0% 51% -4.2%
10% ← realistic here -14.1% 46% -13.4%
15% -22.4% 39% -21.8%
20% -30.0% 34% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$18 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,934
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses403 / 357
Open positions0
Markets (closed)760 / 760
History coverage66d ⚠
Avg bet$21
Trades / day44.6
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 760 Trades
no open positions (217 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $19 +$21 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$12 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $18 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$4 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$4 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $41 +$9 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$9 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $17 +$13 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $23 +$17 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$15 +317%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$15 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$9 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $64 +$66 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $56 −$54 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$17 +529%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $17 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $36 +$64 +175%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $6 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $6 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $6 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $6 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $6 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $4 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $4 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $9 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $3 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $7 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $8 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records