Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:30:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
06 0x06a0…5804 sports 331 markets active 0h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,182 (-4%) realized −$3,089 · open −$93
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate50%163W / 165L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$265per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$151est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$293
7 days+$362
14 days+$1,698
30 days+$1,807
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$3,854
other 26% −$7,084
world 0% +$271
crypto 0% +$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +6.0% -4.1% 48% 43% -3.1%
≤30d 93 +22.6% +10.9% 55% 54% +5.5%
≤90d 153 +3.2% -6.6% 48% 47% -31.4%
all 328 +4.3% -5.6% 50% 49% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.6% 49% -12.5%
10% -14.6% 49% -20.8%
15% -22.9% 48% -28.5%
20% -30.4% 45% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$243 vs −$257 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized−$3,089
Unrealized−$93
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses163 / 165
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$151
Open positions3
Markets (closed)328 / 331
History coverage151d
Avg bet$265
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 328 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Yes 43¢ 42¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 0¢ $93 $1 −$92 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 159 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $99 +$76 +76%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $160 +$341 +213%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $263 −$259 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $75 −$74 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $58 −$57 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $110 +$246 +223%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $77 −$76 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $52 +$96 +185%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $61 +$91 +149%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $625 +$536 +86%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $446 −$446 -100%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $155 −$153 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $333 +$330 +99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $148 −$147 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $83 −$81 -98%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2,024 +$57 +3%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $100 −$98 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $18 −$18 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $29 +$21 +72%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $62 +$74 +120%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $101 +$53 +52%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $56 +$45 +80%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 10 $69 +$62 +89%
Will UD Almería vs. CD Castellón end in a draw? Jun 09 $52 −$50 -98%
Liberia vs. Sierra Leone: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $43 +$58 +136%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $177 +$121 +68%
Belarus vs. Burkina Faso: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $48 +$97 +203%
Belarus leading at halftime? Jun 09 $29 −$28 -98%
Armenia vs. Moldova: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $84 +$101 +120%
Indonesia vs. Mozambique: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $71 −$71 -100%
Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $100 −$99 -99%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $31 −$31 -99%
Philippines vs. Myanmar: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $59 +$72 +121%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $100 −$81 -80%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $157 +$83 +53%
France leading at halftime? Jun 08 $100 +$57 +56%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 08 $72 +$54 +74%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $51 −$50 -98%
Jordan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $45 −$45 -100%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 07 $80 +$64 +80%
Ecuador vs. Guatemala: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $79 +$150 +190%
Morocco vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $100 +$80 +80%
Greece vs. Italy: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $49 −$49 -100%
Kosovo vs. Andorra: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $72 +$77 +107%
Kosovo leading at halftime? Jun 07 $95 +$76 +80%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $149 +$146 +98%
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $55 −$54 -98%
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $26 −$25 -98%
Cyprus leading at halftime? Jun 07 $69 +$60 +88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $39 14m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $36 15m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 100¢ $175 29m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 56¢ $99 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 99¢ $501 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 31¢ $160 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $263 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $75 5h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $58 23h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $357 25h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 30¢ $110 26h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 41¢ $77 26h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $1 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $29 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $6 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $1 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $1 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $1 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $6 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $3 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $3 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $1 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $1 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $152 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $61 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 84¢ $1,161 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $12 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $503 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $82 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $27 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.95 · official $72.95 (match) · 824 history records