Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:38:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x0698…b91d sports 237 markets active 1h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,041 (-8%) realized −$5,791 · open −$250
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%97W / 139L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$338per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$1,232est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$89
7 days−$89
14 days−$89
30 days−$147
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$7,927
other 2% +$1,177
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 25 +1.2% -8.4% 48% 48% -11.8%
≤90d 236 -9.8% -18.4% 41% 39% -16.9%
all 236 -9.8% -18.4% 41% 39% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 39% -16.9%
10% -26.2% 39% -24.9%
15% -33.3% 36% -32.1%
20% -39.9% 33% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -10% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$353 vs −$293 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5,791
Unrealized−$250
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses97 / 139
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$1,232
Open positions1
Markets (closed)236 / 237
History coverage85d
Avg bet$338
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 236 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage AGELITE 29¢ 0¢ $250 $0 −$250 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 133 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs AM Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $91 −$89 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $417 −$414 -99%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs AM Gaming (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Jun 07 $123 +$147 +120%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $303 +$158 +52%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $347 +$441 +127%
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs Global Esports (+1.5) Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $76 −$74 -98%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - LFL Playoffs Jun 06 $1 $0 +24%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $1 $0 +46%
Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs ex-RUBY (+1.5) Jun 06 $86 +$158 +185%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 06 $279 +$441 +158%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $100 −$98 -98%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $110 −$108 -98%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs Alliance Guardians - Map 1 Winner Jun 03 $73 +$75 +102%
Counter-Strike: BESTIA vs largadosypelados (BO3) - Circuit X Base Reci Jun 01 $300 +$631 +210%
LoL: The Ruddy Sack vs Arctic Pandas (BO3) - NLC Playoffs Jun 01 $474 −$466 -98%
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 31 $260 +$296 +114%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs OG - Map 1 Winner May 31 $103 −$101 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner May 29 $766 −$489 -64%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs INOX Division (BO3) - ESL Challenger L May 29 $59 +$57 +97%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $897 −$886 -99%
LoL: Ozarox Esports vs PCIFIC - Game 2 Winner May 26 $150 −$147 -98%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Lazer Cats (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Gr May 26 $75 −$74 -98%
Valorant: Grizzly Gang vs LYON (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regula May 25 $41 −$40 -98%
Valorant: All Gamers vs FunPlus Phoenix (BO3) - China Evolution Series May 25 $748 +$445 +60%
Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs Kinoa (BO3) - United21 Playoffs May 25 $14 $0 +2%
Map Handicap: MANA (-1.5) vs Kinoa (+1.5) May 25 $90 +$229 +255%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 May 25 $344 +$150 +44%
LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 25 $172 −$168 -98%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner May 24 $532 −$521 -98%
Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs Kinoa - Map 2 Winner May 24 $199 −$199 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 24 $1,203 −$1,182 -98%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Sashi Esport (BO3) - Conquest of Prague Fi May 24 $126 +$150 +119%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs FOKUS (BO3) - BC Game Masters Championship P May 24 $152 +$147 +97%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? May 24 $606 +$780 +129%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth (BO3) - LCK Challengers May 22 $28 −$27 -97%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Falcons Force (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Gr May 22 $53 −$52 -98%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Sashi Esport (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play May 21 $805 +$121 +15%
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs MIBR (+1.5) May 20 $111 −$109 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Team Heretics - Map 3 Winner May 17 $412 −$412 -100%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 17 $388 +$162 +42%
Dota 2: Aurora vs ex-HEROIC - Game 2 Winner May 17 $981 +$607 +62%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 15 $116 −$114 -98%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 14 $350 +$301 +86%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rare Atom - Map 2 Winner May 14 $289 +$1,030 +357%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs HANJIN BRION Challengers - Game 1 Winne May 14 $326 −$319 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner May 13 $40 −$39 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN - Map 1 Winner May 13 $249 −$244 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner May 13 $59 −$58 -98%
Map Handicap: GX (-1.5) vs Pcific Esports (+1.5) May 12 $21 −$21 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY AGELITE 29¢ $255 1h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs AM Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY AM Gaming 31¢ $1 25h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs AM Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY AM Gaming 28¢ $90 25h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 73¢ $14 16d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 73¢ $403 16d
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs Global Esports (+1.5) BUY Leviatán Esports 31¢ $10 16d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 20¢ $76 16d
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 57¢ $2 16d
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner BUY GenOne 44¢ $40 16d
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner BUY GenOne 43¢ $305 16d
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Secret Whales 65¢ $303 17d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs AM Gaming (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group BUY AM Gaming 45¢ $75 17d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs AM Gaming (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group BUY AM Gaming 45¢ $4 17d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs AM Gaming (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group BUY AM Gaming 45¢ $5 17d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs AM Gaming (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group BUY AM Gaming 46¢ $39 17d
Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs ex-RUBY (+1.5) BUY 100 Thieves 35¢ $41 18d
Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs ex-RUBY (+1.5) BUY 100 Thieves 34¢ $45 18d
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest - Map 1 Winner BUY THUNDER dOWNUNDER 29¢ $31 20d
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest - Map 1 Winner BUY THUNDER dOWNUNDER 29¢ $31 20d
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest - Map 1 Winner BUY THUNDER dOWNUNDER 29¢ $39 20d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 - Map 2 Winner BUY B8 39¢ $14 20d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 - Map 2 Winner BUY B8 38¢ $265 20d
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner BUY Hokori 35¢ $8 20d
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner BUY Hokori 33¢ $102 20d
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - LFL Playoffs BUY Solary 80¢ $1 20d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY B8 68¢ $1 20d
LoL: The Ruddy Sack vs Arctic Pandas (BO3) - NLC Playoffs BUY Arctic Pandas 36¢ $58 22d
LoL: The Ruddy Sack vs Arctic Pandas (BO3) - NLC Playoffs BUY Arctic Pandas 24¢ $31 22d
LoL: The Ruddy Sack vs Arctic Pandas (BO3) - NLC Playoffs BUY Arctic Pandas 27¢ $102 22d
LoL: The Ruddy Sack vs Arctic Pandas (BO3) - NLC Playoffs BUY Arctic Pandas 25¢ $47 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.43 · official $0.43 (match) · 791 history records