Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:38:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x0698…732b sports 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$62 (-11%) realized −$98 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%12W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day21.5pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$69
7 days−$74
14 days−$98
30 days−$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$74
other 18% +$16
world 12% −$45
crypto 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +16.8% +5.7% 18% 18% -30.3%
≤30d 44 +31.3% +18.8% 27% 27% -26.1%
≤90d 44 +31.3% +18.8% 27% 27% -26.1%
all 44 +31.3% +18.8% 27% 27% -26.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +18.8% 27% -26.1%
10% ← realistic here +7.5% 27% -33.2%
15% -2.9% 27% -39.6%
20% -12.4% 27% -45.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +45% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$8 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$98
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses12 / 32
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage10d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day21.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-7%)
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Global Esports 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will El Salvador win on 2026-06-06? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $9 +$34 +365%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Haiti leading at halftime? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $3 +$6 +246%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 +$41 +1435%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $6 $0 -7%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $4 −$1 -30%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $91 −$9 -10%
France leading at halftime? Jun 08 $13 +$23 +173%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 08 $6 +$5 +83%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 08 $5 $0 -9%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 08 $3 $0 -14%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 4.5 Jun 08 $23 −$14 -61%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $8 −$4 -55%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $3 +$5 +159%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $64 −$45 -71%
Will Denmark vs. Ukraine end in a draw? Jun 07 $73 −$6 -8%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $8 $0 -4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will El Salvador win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -97%
England leading at halftime? Jun 06 $3 +$5 +174%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 06 $11 −$11 -100%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 06 $3 +$2 +77%
Will Bangladesh win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $5 +$3 +51%
San Marino vs. Bangladesh: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $3 +$9 +282%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $9 −$1 -12%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? Jun 04 $3 +$16 +534%
France leading at halftime? Jun 04 $7 +$13 +182%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 21¢ $6 45m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 21¢ $4 45m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 12¢ $3 59m
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 3¢ $1 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 4¢ $1 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 4¢ $1 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 12¢ $3 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 21¢ $4 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 21¢ $1 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 21¢ $2 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 21¢ $1 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 9¢ $3 1h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 6¢ $2 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $11 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 24¢ $7 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 20¢ $3 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 36¢ $6 2h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 36¢ $6 2h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 11¢ $1 3h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 11¢ $1 3h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 11¢ $2 3h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 11¢ $1 3h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 15¢ $9 3h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 49¢ $15 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 6¢ $2 8h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 6¢ $2 22h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 23h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 23h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 21¢ $1 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.70 · official $11.70 (match) · 244 history records