Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:07:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x0698…e3f5 crypto 1029 markets active 0h ago coverage 97d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 96d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$189 (-1%) realized −$189 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate57%586W / 443L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day25.1pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$317
7 days−$1,041
14 days−$514
30 days−$626
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$356
other 1% −$183
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 88 -48.2% -53.2% 23% 22% -48.1%
≤30d 437 -0.6% -10.1% 56% 52% -12.2%
≤90d 987 -5.5% -14.5% 57% 50% -10.5%
all 1029 -5.6% -14.6% 57% 49% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.6% 49% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -22.8% 44% -19.4%
15% -30.3% 40% -27.2%
20% -37.1% 33% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$30 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$189
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses586 / 443
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1029 / 1029
History coverage97d ⚠
Avg bet$36
Trades / day25.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1029 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$39 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$39 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 20 $32 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$41 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$13 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$21 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$12 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$19 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$19 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$21 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$26 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$54 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$40 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$39 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$46 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$17 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$40 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$72 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$47 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$26 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$36 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$18 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $64 −$13 -21%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 23, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$3 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $31 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $31 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $31 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $31 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $30 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $32 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $31 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $31 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $31 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $18 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $31 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $31 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records