Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:04:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
06 0x0697…ffd7 sports 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$24 (+24%) realized +$15 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$29
sports 34% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +3.5% -6.4% 67% 67% +46.8%
≤30d 3 +3.5% -6.4% 67% 67% +46.8%
≤90d 3 +3.5% -6.4% 67% 67% +46.8%
all 3 +3.5% -6.4% 67% 67% +46.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 67% +46.8%
10% -15.4% 33% +32.8%
15% -23.5% 33% +20.0%
20% -31.0% 33% +8.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +62% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +62% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$2 · ×6.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×12.45 per $1 lost it wins $12.45
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 100¢ $40 $45 +$5 (+12%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 Over 84¢ 100¢ $21 $25 +$4 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 +$2 +17%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $25 +$24 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $21 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $40 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $2 24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $25 24h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 2.5 BUY Under 85¢ $10 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.69 · official $69.69 (match) · 8 history records