Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:03:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x0694…64bf politics 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%2W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% $0
economics 19% $0
crypto 12% $0
other 6% $0
world 6% $0
sports 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
all 16 -0.0% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses2 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage109d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $87 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 06 $87 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 28 $87 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $87 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $87 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $87 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $88 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 13 $88 $0 +0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $88 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $88 $0 +0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 04 $88 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 30 $88 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 21 $88 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 17 $88 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 13 $88 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 08 $88 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $87 1h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $87 13h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $87 19d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $87 19d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $87 28d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $87 28d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $87 37d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $87 37d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $87 41d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $87 41d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $87 47d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $87 48d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $88 68d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $46 68d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $42 68d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $88 73d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $88 73d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $88 75d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $88 76d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $88 79d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $88 79d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 100¢ $88 81d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 100¢ $88 82d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $88 86d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $88 87d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 99¢ $88 95d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 99¢ $88 96d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $88 100d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $88 100d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $88 103d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 43 history records