Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:00:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
06 0x0691…c0f5 sports 33 markets active 3h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$63 (+1%) realized +$68 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate48%15W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$30
14 days+$131
30 days+$131
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$295
other 28% +$337
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-34.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -43.4% -48.8% 29% 29% -12.8%
≤30d 15 -37.0% -43.0% 33% 33% +0.8%
≤90d 31 -27.5% -34.4% 48% 42% -8.5%
all 31 -27.5% -34.4% 48% 42% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.4% 42% -8.5%
10% -40.7% 26% -17.3%
15% -46.4% 26% -25.3%
20% -51.7% 16% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$56 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$68
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses15 / 16
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)31 / 33
History coverage86d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Over 8¢ 8¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-6%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Over 3¢ 2¢ $12 $7 −$5 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $15 $0 -3%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $29 −$28 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $219 −$214 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $41 +$70 +172%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $40 +$18 +44%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $100 +$41 +41%
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $356 +$127 +36%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $303 +$162 +53%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 15 $56 −$55 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 15 $36 +$20 +54%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs HOTU (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 14 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $223 +$220 +99%
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs Sashi Esport (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs Mar 31 $400 −$397 -99%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs FaZe (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs Mar 31 $560 +$65 +12%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Sashi Esport (BO3) - DraculaN Playoff Mar 31 $3 −$3 -97%
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs aimclub (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs Mar 30 $552 +$13 +2%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Infinite (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs Mar 30 $504 +$48 +10%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterd Mar 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Mar 28 $39 −$39 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Vitality (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gr Mar 23 $210 +$46 +22%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Rott Mar 23 $132 +$77 +59%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B Mar 22 $111 +$21 +19%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs TheMongolz (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Grou Mar 22 $99 +$13 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 3¢ $12 3h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 8¢ $12 3h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 3¢ $5 20h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $6 22h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 3¢ $5 26h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 15¢ $5 26h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 48¢ $14 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 48¢ $15 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $10 2d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 3¢ $4 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 4¢ $29 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $219 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $111 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 36¢ $41 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 19¢ $10 4d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 69¢ $40 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $141 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $100 5d
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-09? SELL Yes 100¢ $484 6d
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 73¢ $356 7d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? SELL Yes 99¢ $465 9d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 64¢ $303 10d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A BUY Vitality 63¢ $56 62d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $56 62d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B BUY Aurora Gaming 64¢ $36 62d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B BUY Aurora Gaming 41¢ $20 62d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs HOTU (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B BUY Aurora Gaming 89¢ $50 63d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-31? SELL Yes 100¢ $443 76d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-31? BUY Yes 50¢ $123 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.63 · official $18.63 (match) · 56 history records