trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -51.9% | -56.5% | 0% | 0% | -56.1% |
| ≤30d | 2 | -51.9% | -56.5% | 0% | 0% | -56.1% |
| ≤90d | 4 | -50.4% | -55.2% | 25% | 0% | -81.6% |
| all | 15 | -61.9% | -65.5% | 13% | 7% | -71.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -65.5% | 7% | -71.7% |
| 10% | -68.8% | 7% | -74.4% |
| 15% | -71.8% | 7% | -76.8% |
| 20% | -74.6% | 7% | -79.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? | Yes | 14¢ | 11¢ | $455 | $364 | −$91 (-20%) |
| Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 28, 2026? | Yes | 2¢ | 28¢ | $1 | $19 | +$18 (+1777%) |
| Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 31, 2026? | Yes | 1¢ | 10¢ | $2 | $14 | +$12 (+625%) |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $16 | $12 | −$4 (-25%) |
| Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 21, 2026? | Yes | 2¢ | 13¢ | $1 | $7 | +$6 (+595%) |
| Will GPT-5.6 be released on June 28, 2026? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $1 | −$1 (-68%) |
| Will GPT-5.6 be released on June 27, 2026? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-56%) |
| Epstein or Maxwell confirmed Mossad operatives by June 30? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $6 | $0 | −$6 (-96%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? | Jun 23 | $6 | −$6 | -96% |
| Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? | Jun 23 | $6 | $0 | -4% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | Apr 21 | $37 | −$37 | -100% |
| Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? | Apr 21 | $5 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m | Mar 17 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me | Mar 17 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m | Mar 17 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| NATO dissolves before 2027? | Mar 12 | $6 | −$1 | -10% |
| Odds Trump acquires Greenland before 2027 hit 30% by March 31? | Feb 22 | $7 | −$7 | -100% |
| Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? | Feb 22 | $7 | $0 | -6% |
| Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | Feb 21 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Google (GOOGL) close above $330 end of January? | Feb 20 | $7 | +$6 | +89% |
| Will Google have the best AI model for coding on March 31? | Jan 11 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding on March 31? | Jan 11 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar | Jan 11 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |