Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:08:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
06 0x068b…2106 other 185 markets active 7d ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8,460 (-20%) realized −$8,460 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate60%110W / 74L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$234per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$146est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$397
30 days−$2,517
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$3,360
sports 40% −$5,046
crypto 4% −$39
world 3% −$325
finance 0% +$111
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 57 -6.3% -15.2% 61% 56% -27.5%
≤90d 93 -11.8% -20.2% 57% 53% -29.5%
all 184 -6.8% -15.7% 60% 57% -27.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 57% -27.7%
10% -23.7% 51% -34.6%
15% -31.1% 39% -40.9%
20% -37.9% 26% -46.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -3% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$263 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8,460
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses110 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$146
Open positions0
Markets (closed)184 / 185
History coverage103d
Avg bet$234
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 184 Trades
no open positions (32 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 18 $89 +$13 +14%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $56 +$34 +61%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $72 +$17 +24%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz Jun 18 $58 +$14 +24%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $88 −$88 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $75 +$14 +18%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $42 +$33 +78%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $63 −$63 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $115 −$114 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $162 −$161 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $120 +$43 +36%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $226 −$223 -99%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $161 +$65 +40%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Mikhail Kukushkin Jun 13 $125 +$36 +29%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Marin Cilic Jun 13 $82 +$43 +53%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $41 +$40 +98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $835 −$826 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $591 +$245 +41%
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $404 +$176 +44%
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $277 +$138 +50%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $251 +$27 +11%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $172 +$78 +46%
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 08 $304 −$301 -99%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $245 +$59 +24%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $200 +$45 +23%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $153 +$47 +31%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $91 +$61 +67%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $110 −$109 -99%
Will San Marino vs. Bangladesh end in a draw? Jun 05 $98 −$97 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $136 −$38 -28%
Heilbronn: Marco Trungelliti vs Diego Dedura-Palomero Jun 05 $102 −$100 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $182 +$56 +31%
Centurion 2: Harold Mayot vs Eliakim Coulibaly Jun 05 $61 +$68 +112%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $216 −$214 -99%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $154 +$62 +40%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $117 −$115 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $83 −$83 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $29 −$29 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $11 +$20 +180%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $15 +$29 +197%
Wales vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 02 $117 +$45 +38%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $266 +$24 +9%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $214 +$52 +24%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 02 $4 +$2 +52%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $22 −$22 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $219 +$16 +8%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $111 +$107 +97%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Jun 01 $87 +$24 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score AND Will Canada win on BUY 41¢ $91 7d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $90 7d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 62¢ $25 7d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 62¢ $31 7d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 7d
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann SELL Alexander Zverev 100¢ $102 7d
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Alexander Zverev 87¢ $89 7d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn SELL Ben Shelton 100¢ $89 7d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ben Shelton 80¢ $72 7d
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 100¢ $72 7d
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 80¢ $58 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $88 8d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova SELL Aryna Sabalenka 100¢ $89 8d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 84¢ $75 8d
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 99¢ $75 8d
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 55¢ $42 8d
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 66¢ $63 9d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $115 10d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 81¢ $162 10d
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 26¢ $1 10d
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 99¢ $163 10d
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 72¢ $120 10d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 61¢ $226 12d
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P SELL Yes 99¢ $226 12d
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P BUY Yes 70¢ $161 12d
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Mikhail Kukushkin SELL Mattia Bellucci 100¢ $161 12d
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Mikhail Kukushkin BUY Mattia Bellucci 77¢ $125 12d
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Marin Cilic SELL Daniil Medvedev 99¢ $125 12d
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Marin Cilic BUY Daniil Medvedev 64¢ $1 12d
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Marin Cilic BUY Daniil Medvedev 64¢ $8 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 422 history records