Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:56:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x068b…0453 sports 143 markets active 2h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%14W / 128L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 29% −$3
other 23% −$6
politics 19% −$2
crypto 12% −$1
economics 8% −$1
culture 4% $0
world 3% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 3 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 142 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses14 / 128
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)142 / 143
History coverage159d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 97¢ 97¢ $40 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $138 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $131 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 15 $51 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 19 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 19 $46 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Feb 19 $45 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 19 $100 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 19 $278 $0 +0%
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 19 $91 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 19 $144 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 19 $91 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 19 $62 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Feb 19 $52 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 19 $98 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 19 $123 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 19 $155 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 19 $108 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Feb 19 $49 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 19 $146 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 19 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 19 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 19 $106 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 17 $51 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 17 $100 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 17 $145 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 17 $49 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 17 $161 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 17 $104 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 17 $52 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 17 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 17 $99 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 17 $96 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 17 $54 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 17 $32 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 17 $80 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 17 $106 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Feb 14 $95 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 14 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 14 $50 $0 -0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? Feb 14 $6 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 14 $47 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 14 $55 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 14 $51 $0 -0%
Will Finland win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Ol Feb 14 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Feb 14 $49 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 14 $90 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Feb 14 $2 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 14 $48 $0 -0%
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Oly Feb 14 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 11 $55 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $40 1h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $39 8d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $39 8d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $43 20d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $44 21d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 95¢ $51 35d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 95¢ $51 35d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 98¢ $49 120d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 98¢ $49 120d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 93¢ $46 120d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 94¢ $46 120d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 92¢ $45 120d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 92¢ $45 120d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $47 120d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $47 120d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $48 120d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $48 120d
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 97¢ $44 120d
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 97¢ $44 120d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 94¢ $44 120d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 94¢ $44 120d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $43 120d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $43 120d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $52 120d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $52 120d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 98¢ $52 120d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 98¢ $52 120d
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $52 120d
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $52 120d
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $46 120d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.48 · official $39.48 (match) · 519 history records