Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:15:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
06 0x0684…87a3 crypto 428 markets active 0h ago coverage 65d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,594 (-6%) realized −$1,553 · open −$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate15%64W / 358L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day17.6pace
Fees−$70est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$1,175now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 65d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$5,489
other 29% −$957
sports 12% +$541
politics 1% −$205
world 0% −$57
economics 0% −$41
culture 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-58.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -29.2% -35.9% 19% 19% -21.7%
≤30d 132 -31.3% -37.8% 19% 17% -20.2%
≤90d 422 -54.1% -58.5% 15% 14% -38.2%
all 422 -54.1% -58.5% 15% 14% -38.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -58.5% 14% -38.2%
10% -62.5% 13% -44.1%
15% -66.1% 13% -49.5%
20% -69.4% 11% -54.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -54% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -68% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$31 · ×2.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$1,175
Realized−$1,553
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses64 / 358
Est. fees paid−$70
Open positions6
Markets (closed)422 / 428
History coverage65d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day17.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 422 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $766 $760 −$6 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 50¢ 46¢ $315 $294 −$21 (-7%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Yes 58¢ 56¢ $99 $97 −$2 (-2%)
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $18 $11 −$7 (-39%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? No 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? Yes 13¢ 6¢ $8 $4 −$4 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 305 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $61 +$41 +67%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $47 −$43 -90%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $43 −$5 -11%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $48 −$5 -10%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $574 +$232 +40%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $708 +$420 +59%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $107 −$105 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $79 −$44 -55%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $75 −$26 -35%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $105 −$103 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $303 −$151 -50%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $115 −$13 -11%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 18 $124 −$91 -73%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $75 −$20 -27%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $59 +$79 +134%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $131 −$129 -99%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $61 −$3 -4%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $36 −$3 -7%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $26 −$2 -9%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $4 −$4 -95%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $132 +$138 +104%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $93 −$91 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $24 −$7 -28%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $46 −$2 -4%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $73 −$32 -44%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $56 +$194 +344%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $92 −$90 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $38 −$24 -63%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$311 +304%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $302 −$148 -49%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $523 −$350 -67%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $283 −$15 -5%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $307 −$23 -7%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $537 −$527 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $69 +$62 +90%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $74 −$9 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -95%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $228 +$238 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -95%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $472 +$540 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 21m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 14¢ $10 22m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $10 24m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $67 25m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $102 25m
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $90 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $707 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $37 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 57¢ $36 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $37 6h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 15¢ $39 6h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $43 13h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 19¢ $43 13h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $17 13h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 13h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $61 13h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $310 14h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 21h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $304 21h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,128 21h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $107 24h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $708 24h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 46h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $11 46h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 46h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 46h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $33 46h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $17 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,175.18 · official $1,175.19 (match) · 1238 history records