Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:40:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x0684…d1fa sports 553 markets active 2h ago coverage 419d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,753 (-7%) realized −$3,761 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate36%197W / 354L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$365est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$258now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$600
7 days−$959
14 days+$787
30 days−$302
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$405
crypto 27% −$3,940
politics 10% −$1,306
other 4% +$715
finance 1% −$268
tech 1% −$228
world 0% −$33
economics 0% −$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -6.5% -15.4% 36% 36% -21.9%
≤30d 149 +1.3% -8.4% 40% 39% -10.9%
≤90d 222 -5.8% -14.8% 39% 37% -15.6%
all 551 -11.2% -19.7% 36% 35% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 35% -19.4%
10% -27.4% 35% -27.1%
15% -34.4% 34% -34.2%
20% -40.8% 33% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$120 vs −$82 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

419d coverage
Net worth$258
Realized−$3,761
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses197 / 354
Est. fees paid−$365
Open positions2
Markets (closed)551 / 553
History coverage419d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 551 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? Down 37¢ 44¢ $150 $180 +$30 (+20%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $100 $79 −$21 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 333 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $182 −$25 -14%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $113 −$111 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $207 +$177 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $261 −$250 -96%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5) Jun 17 $204 +$536 +262%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $183 −$180 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $153 −$150 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $158 +$329 +208%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $204 −$200 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $153 +$252 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $208 +$70 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $103 +$76 +73%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $71 +$108 +152%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $71 +$147 +206%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $82 +$158 +194%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $70 −$68 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $72 −$70 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $207 −$200 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $144 −$140 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 11 $157 −$74 -47%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $529 −$468 -88%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $62 −$59 -94%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 12.5 Jun 11 $406 −$400 -98%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-4.5) Jun 11 $306 +$626 +204%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $306 −$300 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $305 −$300 -98%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 10 $306 −$300 -98%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $204 +$434 +213%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5 Jun 10 $306 −$300 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $309 +$178 +58%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5 Jun 10 $306 −$300 -98%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $205 −$200 -98%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $204 −$200 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5 Jun 10 $305 +$445 +146%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $528 −$500 -95%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5 Jun 10 $204 +$352 +172%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 Jun 10 $305 +$447 +146%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $103 −$100 -98%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $205 −$200 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Jun 10 $305 +$385 +126%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $22 −$22 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 Jun 10 $204 +$397 +194%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $500 −$472 -94%
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. AS FAR: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $204 −$200 -98%
Belarus vs. Burkina Faso: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $204 +$567 +277%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $256 +$1,015 +396%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $162 −$12 -7%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 09 $133 −$130 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 37¢ $154 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $276 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 42¢ $113 11h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $104 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $384 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $106 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 12h
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5) SELL Toronto Blue Jays 100¢ $740 12h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $183 14h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $153 14h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $487 14h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $204 14h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $405 14h
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 27¢ $204 14h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 46¢ $102 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $278 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $104 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $258.43 · official $258.43 (match) · 1723 history records