Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:58:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x0682…6307 crypto 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$19 (-4%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate79%15W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 19d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +66.6% +50.7% 89% 78% -15.1%
≤30d 19 +24.2% +12.3% 79% 42% -18.7%
≤90d 19 +24.2% +12.3% 79% 42% -18.7%
all 19 +24.2% +12.3% 79% 42% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.3% 42% -18.7%
10% +1.6% 16% -26.5%
15% -8.2% 11% -33.6%
20% -17.2% 11% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +58% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$23 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses15 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage19d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 23 $17 +$12 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 23 $9 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 23 $36 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 23 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 23 $13 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 23 $38 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 23 $220 −$59 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 23 $51 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 23 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 05 $13 −$3 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 05 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 05 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 04 $41 −$26 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 04 $28 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 04 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 04 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $12 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $17 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $4 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $4 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $34 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 105 history records