Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:52:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x0681…d906 other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$161 (+22%) realized +$161 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +264% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +229% what you keep after slip
Net edge+229%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate50%7W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$117
7 days−$117
14 days−$45
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$79
sports 25% +$16
politics 10% +$1
tech 4% +$2
economics 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+228.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +629.8% +560.3% 33% 33% -67.7%
≤30d 5 +819.9% +732.3% 60% 60% -51.9%
≤90d 14 +263.5% +228.9% 50% 43% -42.4%
all 14 +263.5% +228.9% 50% 43% -42.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +228.9% 43% -42.4%
10% +197.4% 29% -47.9%
15% +168.7% 29% -52.9%
20% +142.3% 29% -57.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +263% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -62% → late +589% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$36 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$161
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses7 / 7
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage72d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $205 −$172 -84%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $102 −$27 -26%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $82 +$82 +101%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $76 +$42 +56%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $127 +$30 +24%
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.5% and 3.0%? May 06 $9 +$2 +18%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 28 $30 +$2 +8%
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%? Apr 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 202 Apr 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 14 $49 +$26 +53%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Dyson Daniels lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA seaso Apr 14 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Bryson Dechambeau win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? SELL Yes $5 58m
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? SELL Yes $1 58m
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? SELL Yes $1 58m
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? SELL Yes $1 58m
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? SELL Yes $2 58m
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? SELL Yes $2 58m
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? SELL Yes $2 58m
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? SELL Yes $2 58m
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? SELL Yes $8 58m
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? SELL Yes $1 58m
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? SELL Yes $3 58m
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? SELL Yes $2 58m
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? SELL Yes $3 58m
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 18¢ $205 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $75 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 73¢ $161 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 36¢ $82 1h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 79¢ $157 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 7d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 58¢ $115 7d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $55 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL No 90¢ $105 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 64¢ $76 7d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 99¢ $32 51d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 92¢ $30 53d
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.5% and 3.0%? BUY No 85¢ $9 60d
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%? BUY Yes 26¢ $7 61d
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the BUY Yes 54¢ $5 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.22 · official $0.00 (match) · 42 history records