Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:37:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x067f…c39c crypto 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$115 (+20%) realized +$115 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%9W / 11L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day36.0pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$64
other 3% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -11.6% -20.0% 45% 45% -1.9%
≤30d 20 -11.6% -20.0% 45% 45% -1.9%
≤90d 20 -11.6% -20.0% 45% 45% -1.9%
all 20 -11.6% -20.0% 45% 45% -1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.0% 45% -1.9%
10% ← realistic here -27.7% 35% -11.3%
15% -34.7% 35% -19.9%
20% -41.1% 30% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +35% → late -58% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$16 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$115
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses9 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage1d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day36.0
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 27 $16 −$16 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 27, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 27 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 27 $39 −$37 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 27 $11 −$9 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 27 $46 +$45 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 27 $21 +$24 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 27 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 27 $36 +$24 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 27 $16 +$6 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 27 $16 +$25 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 27 $122 +$16 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 27 $21 −$7 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 27 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 27 $19 +$10 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 27 $44 +$71 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 27 $64 −$20 -31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $39 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $16 37m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 27, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $16 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $11 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $11 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $4 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $9 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $91 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $136 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $111 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $14 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 45 history records