Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:39:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
06 0x067f…2b31 other 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$178 (+8%) realized +$283 · open −$105
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%5W / 11L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$986now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$26
sports 27% +$871
crypto 3% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +19.4% +8.0% 31% 31% +60.7%
≤30d 16 +19.4% +8.0% 31% 31% +60.7%
≤90d 16 +19.4% +8.0% 31% 31% +60.7%
all 16 +19.4% +8.0% 31% 31% +60.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.0% 31% +60.7%
10% -2.3% 31% +45.3%
15% -11.7% 31% +31.2%
20% -20.4% 31% +18.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +78% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +78% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -55% → late +94% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$273 vs −$39 · ×7.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.22 per $1 lost it wins $3.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$986
Realized+$283
Unrealized−$105
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses5 / 11
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions5
Markets (closed)16 / 21
History coverage5d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $730 $865 +$134 (+18%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $101 $99 −$2 (-2%)
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 3¢ $100 $15 −$85 (-85%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 11¢ 1¢ $110 $6 −$103 (-94%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 1 Japan? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $103 +$806 +785%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $68 −$66 -97%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $41 −$41 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score AND Côte d'Ivoire to sc Jun 20 $26 +$55 +217%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $101 +$71 +70%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$5 -15%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $113 −$110 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $305 +$320 +105%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND Canada to score first vs. Jun 19 $202 +$113 +56%
Alphonso Davies: 1+ goals Jun 18 $98 −$95 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 1h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 5h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $68 5h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 23¢ $31 31h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 21¢ $41 31h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score AND Côte d'Ivoire to sc BUY 31¢ $26 31h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $101 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $29 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $26 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 33h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $103 33h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 33h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 33h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 33h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 33h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $305 2d
Alphonso Davies: 1+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $98 2d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND Canada to score first vs. BUY 63¢ $202 2d
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $750 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $986.06 · official $986.06 (match) · 39 history records