Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:46:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x067a…3821 sports 95 markets active 1h ago coverage 249d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$49 (-4%) realized −$16 · open −$33
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate59%48W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$140now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$130
30 days−$130
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$44
other 27% −$75
politics 8% −$4
economics 5% −$4
world 4% −$25
tech 2% −$6
crypto 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 17 -44.4% -49.7% 6% 0% -35.4%
≤90d 18 -41.1% -46.7% 11% 6% -30.2%
all 81 +5.8% -4.3% 59% 57% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.3% 57% -18.6%
10% -13.4% 47% -26.4%
15% -21.8% 35% -33.5%
20% -29.4% 23% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

249d coverage
Net worth$140
Realized−$16
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses48 / 33
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions14
Markets (closed)81 / 95
History coverage249d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 53¢ 48¢ $53 $48 −$4 (-8%)
Will Alisson Becker record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 50¢ 90¢ $8 $15 +$7 (+80%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? No 31¢ 30¢ $15 $15 −$1 (-5%)
Will Argentina win the World Cup? No 88¢ 90¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+3%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No 50¢ 80¢ $5 $9 +$3 (+59%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 84¢ 87¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+4%)
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? Yes 22¢ 21¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Alisson Becker record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Warsh say "Balance Sheet" during June Press Conference? Yes 72¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+39%)
Will Warsh say "Artificial Intelligence" or "AI" during June Press Conference? Yes 71¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+40%)
Will Argentina win the World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$1 (-14%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-19%)
Will Belgium win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ $28 $2 −$25 (-91%)
Will Warsh say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during June Press Conference? Yes 40¢ 24¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-41%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? Yes 19¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-81%)
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? Yes 84¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Monte qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 10 $14 $0 -2%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 10 $19 −$3 -15%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 10 $50 −$2 -4%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs NIP (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage Jun 10 $52 −$3 -5%
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 09 $44 −$1 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the Jun 09 $9 $0 -2%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Gen.G Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Jun 09 $18 −$1 -6%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Will voter turnout be between 70% and 80% in the first round of the 20 Jun 09 $12 −$1 -11%
Eli Lilly licenses Peptron’s SmartDepot by October 7? Jun 09 $14 −$1 -9%
Ilkley: Kayla Day vs Mary Stoiana Jun 09 $19 $0 +2%
Will GRVT launch a token by March 31, 2026? Jun 09 $5 −$10 -200%
West Virginia vs. Houston Jun 09 $20 −$40 -200%
Avalanche vs. Sharks Jun 09 $10 −$20 -200%
Suns vs. Grizzlies Mar 31 $51 +$7 +15%
Zama FDV above $600M one day after launch? Mar 03 $52 −$52 -100%
Rainbow FDV above $200M one day after launch? Feb 02 $71 +$3 +4%
Devils vs. Sharks Jan 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Red Wings vs. Canucks Dec 09 $5 +$4 +85%
Panthers vs. Packers Nov 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Saints vs. Rams Nov 04 $20 +$2 +11%
Chargers vs. Titans Nov 04 $20 +$4 +20%
Falcons vs. Patriots Nov 04 $20 +$9 +45%
Magic vs. Wizards Nov 02 $20 +$9 +45%
Rutgers vs. Illinois Nov 02 $10 +$2 +24%
Miami vs. SMU Mustangs Nov 01 $20 $0 -1%
UAB Blazers vs. UConn Nov 01 $20 $0 -1%
Sam Houston Bearkats vs. Louisiana Tech Nov 01 $10 +$1 +14%
Memphis vs. Rice Nov 01 $10 +$2 +18%
Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Jannik Sinner Nov 01 $20 +$4 +19%
Will Getafe vs. Girona end in a draw? Nov 01 $20 +$9 +45%
Ravens vs. Dolphins Oct 31 $10 +$3 +27%
Blackhawks vs. Jets Oct 31 $10 +$4 +45%
Wizards vs. Thunder Oct 31 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Pisa SC win on 2025-10-30? Oct 31 $10 +$3 +32%
Red Wings vs. Sabres Oct 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Oct 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Magic vs. 76ers Oct 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Lakers Oct 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Pisa SC vs. Lazio end in a draw? Oct 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Lazio win on 2025-10-30? Oct 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Jacksonville State vs. Middle Tennessee Oct 30 $10 +$6 +59%
Will Inter vs. Fiorentina end in a draw? Oct 30 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Inter win on 2025-10-29? Oct 30 $10 +$4 +43%
Blue Jays vs. Dodgers Oct 30 $10 −$3 -27%
Will AS Roma vs. Parma end in a draw? Oct 30 $10 +$3 +28%
Will Como vs. Verona end in a draw? Oct 30 $10 +$4 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $54 34m
Will Warsh say "Artificial Intelligence" or "AI" during June Press Con BUY Yes 71¢ $4 37m
Will Warsh say "Balance Sheet" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 43m
Will Warsh say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 46m
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? SELL No 77¢ $63 1h
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? SELL Yes 50¢ $4 3d
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? SELL Yes 50¢ $5 3d
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? SELL Yes 50¢ $5 3d
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? SELL Yes 50¢ $5 3d
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? SELL Yes 50¢ $5 3d
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 6d
Will Belgium win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 6d
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last E SELL Yes 50¢ $5 7d
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last E BUY No 50¢ $5 7d
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last E BUY Yes 35¢ $4 7d
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 7d
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? BUY No 22¢ $1 7d
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? BUY No 20¢ $2 7d
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? BUY No 22¢ $1 7d
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? BUY No 22¢ $1 7d
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? BUY No 22¢ $2 7d
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? BUY No 21¢ $2 7d
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? SELL Yes 79¢ $7 7d
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? BUY Yes 84¢ $9 7d
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? SELL No 16¢ $1 7d
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? BUY No 16¢ $2 7d
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? BUY No 19¢ $1 7d
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? BUY No 21¢ $1 7d
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? BUY No 22¢ $0 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $139.83 · official $140.00 (match) · 247 history records