Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:36:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x0675…4d27 other 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 261d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate22%9W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$4
sports 12% $0
world 11% +$1
politics 5% −$4
tech 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 60% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 6 -3.5% -12.7% 50% 0% -9.9%
all 41 -0.2% -9.7% 22% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 2% -9.4%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

261d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses9 / 32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage261d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 85¢ 86¢ $48 $49 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $2 $0 -3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $2 $0 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $9 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 24 $53 +$1 +2%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 23 $11 −$2 -21%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Dec 12 $14 +$2 +16%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Dec 12 $28 +$2 +7%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $8 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $61 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $17 −$2 -10%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $26 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $19 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 22 $47 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $18 $0 +0%
Patriots vs. Bengals Nov 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 20 $7 $0 -3%
Will Wolves win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $46 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $40 −$1 -3%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $39 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $69 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Nov 18 $2 $0 -6%
Will Valencia win on 2025-11-21? Nov 18 $28 $0 +0%
Will Osasuna win on 2025-11-22? Nov 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-11-22? Nov 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-22? Nov 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will Top Esports win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 14 $24 +$1 +2%
Will Taylor Swift be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 24 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 23 $26 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $28 +$1 +2%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 01 $4 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $48 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $12 5h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $38 5h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $19 7h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $31 7h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 4¢ $0 21d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $15 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $35 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $10 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $39 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 2¢ $1 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 2¢ $1 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 2¢ $2 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 24d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 24d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 24d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $9 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 65¢ $54 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $53 24d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 73¢ $9 86d
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? SELL No 70¢ $5 204d
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? BUY No 81¢ $8 204d
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? SELL No 27¢ $8 204d
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? BUY No 70¢ $5 204d
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? BUY No 27¢ $3 204d
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? BUY No 27¢ $2 204d
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? BUY No 27¢ $1 204d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.73 · official $48.73 (match) · 373 history records