Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:47:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x0674…f212 sports 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 170d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$3,003 (-7%) realized −$121 · open −$2,882
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%22W / 32L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$719per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$402est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1,018now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 170d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$2,270
other 19% −$966
politics 14% −$5,888
crypto 12% −$782
world 6% −$642
economics 0% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +65.2% +49.5% 47% 47% +59.7%
≤30d 22 +51.0% +36.6% 50% 50% +4.3%
≤90d 22 +51.0% +36.6% 50% 50% +4.3%
all 54 +14.5% +3.6% 41% 41% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.6% 41% -16.1%
10% -6.3% 37% -24.1%
15% -15.4% 33% -31.4%
20% -23.7% 30% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$632) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$784 vs −$638 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$1,018
Realized−$121
Unrealized−$2,882
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses22 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$402
Open positions6
Markets (closed)54 / 60
History coverage170d
Avg bet$719
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 52¢ 54¢ $500 $514 +$14 (+3%)
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Spain 33¢ 32¢ $300 $295 −$5 (-2%)
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 6¢ $800 $155 −$645 (-81%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 21¢ 2¢ $700 $50 −$650 (-93%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $800 $1 −$799 (-100%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $800 $1 −$799 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - December 30, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $600 $0 −$600 (-100%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) Paraguay 60¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Thunder Thunder 38¢ 0¢ $6,098 $0 −$6,098 (-100%)
Suns vs. Pelicans Pelicans 36¢ 0¢ $108 $0 −$108 (-100%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $610 $0 −$610 (-100%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Hawks Hawks 31¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $600 $0 −$600 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - December 30, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $830 $0 −$830 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $650 $0 −$650 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - December 30, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
76ers vs. Thunder 76ers 14¢ 0¢ $98 $0 −$98 (-100%)
Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers Mavericks 28¢ 0¢ $123 $0 −$123 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $274 $0 −$274 (-100%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Under 32¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $829 +$2,105 +254%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $613 −$499 -81%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $241 +$119 +49%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $310 +$283 +91%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $2,533 +$1,612 +64%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $410 +$1,812 +442%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $613 −$600 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $620 −$610 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $614 −$600 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $632 +$1,699 +269%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $691 +$3,944 +571%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $666 −$650 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $506 −$500 -99%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $307 −$300 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $307 −$300 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $204 +$510 +250%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $204 −$200 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $6,162 −$6,098 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 30 $279 −$274 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 30 $194 +$171 +88%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1,050 +$177 +17%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $1,000 +$1,080 +108%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo not be traded? Jan 31 $312 +$93 +30%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Jan 31 $2,508 −$642 -26%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 31 $5,907 −$5,845 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 30, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Dec 30 $1,920 −$102 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 30, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Dec 30 $830 −$830 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 30, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Dec 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 30, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Dec 30 $1,727 +$273 +16%
Will Trump and Netanyahu hug on Monday? Dec 30 $42 −$42 -99%
Football.Fun FDV above $70M one day after launch? Dec 30 $39 −$5 -12%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Dec 30 $316 −$88 -28%
Fogo FDV above $300M one day after launch? Dec 30 $500 −$155 -31%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Dec 30 $942 +$433 +46%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Dec 30 $1,000 +$272 +27%
Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers Dec 30 $652 −$539 -83%
Timberwolves vs. Bulls Dec 30 $272 −$271 -100%
Hawks vs. Thunder Dec 30 $88 −$80 -91%
Spread: Rockets (-14.5) Dec 30 $255 +$260 +102%
Pacers vs. Rockets Dec 30 $130 −$120 -92%
Nuggets vs. Heat Dec 30 $287 −$285 -99%
Suns vs. Wizards Dec 30 $105 −$75 -71%
Pistons vs. Clippers Dec 29 $379 +$451 +119%
Kings vs. Lakers Dec 29 $102 −$84 -82%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 29 $210 −$42 -20%
Spread: Thunder (-14.5) Dec 29 $223 −$223 -100%
Warriors vs. Raptors Dec 29 $190 +$310 +163%
76ers vs. Thunder Dec 28 $98 −$98 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-16.5) Dec 28 $200 +$200 +100%
Knicks vs. Hawks Dec 28 $186 −$136 -73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 33¢ $306 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 20¢ $410 1h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $817 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 52¢ $507 4h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 90¢ $1,659 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 6¢ $22 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 5¢ $92 4h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $1,145 4h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $10 4h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $25 4h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $1 4h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $44 4h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $49 4h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $216 5h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $816 8h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) SELL Germany 30¢ $7 8h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) SELL Germany 30¢ $20 8h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) SELL Germany 30¢ $4 8h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) SELL Germany 30¢ $11 8h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) SELL Germany 30¢ $4 8h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) SELL Germany 30¢ $16 8h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) SELL Germany 30¢ $194 8h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) SELL Germany 30¢ $44 8h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) SELL Germany 30¢ $3 8h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) SELL Germany 30¢ $2 8h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) SELL Germany 30¢ $15 8h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) SELL Germany 30¢ $40 8h
Spread: Germany (-4.5) SELL Germany 60¢ $593 8h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 89¢ $4,144 8h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 53¢ $809 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,017.51 · official $1,017.51 (match) · 586 history records