Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:08:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x066b…4e71 other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-1%) realized −$3 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Kalshi-fit9%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% +$6
world 4% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -10.4% -19.0% 60% 60% -10.8%
≤30d 10 -10.4% -19.0% 60% 60% -10.8%
≤90d 10 -10.4% -19.0% 60% 60% -10.8%
all 10 -10.4% -19.0% 60% 60% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 60% -10.8%
10% -26.7% 40% -19.3%
15% -33.8% 30% -27.1%
20% -40.3% 10% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 43% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$9 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage4d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 96¢ $26 $28 +$2 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $19 +$7 +34%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $33 +$5 +16%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +43%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $24 −$24 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 +$3 +12%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$7 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 +$7 +97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $26 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 79¢ $26 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $19 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $19 5h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 81¢ $19 5h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $14 26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 94¢ $14 28h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 29h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 42h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $24 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 89¢ $21 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $15 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 50¢ $7 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $6 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.66 · official $27.66 (match) · 20 history records