Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:19:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x0661…a93f other 176 markets active 0h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$742 (-7%) realized −$766 · open +$24
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate31%50W / 112L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$199now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$260
7 days+$70
14 days−$473
30 days−$326
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$353
other 24% −$484
sports 19% −$178
world 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-29.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -50.9% -55.5% 21% 21% -2.4%
≤30d 44 -12.1% -20.5% 20% 18% -17.0%
≤90d 162 -21.6% -29.0% 31% 30% -17.2%
all 162 -21.6% -29.0% 31% 30% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.0% 30% -17.2%
10% -35.8% 28% -25.1%
15% -42.0% 24% -32.4%
20% -47.7% 17% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -22% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$35 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$199
Realized−$766
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses50 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions13
Markets (closed)162 / 176
History coverage74d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 162 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 48¢ $30 $45 +$15 (+52%)
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 43¢ 50¢ $30 $35 +$5 (+15%)
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 46¢ 44¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+64%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 21¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+22%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $11 +$1 (+13%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-15%)
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 20¢ 28¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+38%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $7 −$3 (-34%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 28¢ 32¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+16%)
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 32¢ 26¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $101 +$71 +70%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -96%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $101 −$91 -90%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $26 −$25 -97%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
IR Iran to score first vs. Belgium? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$9 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $305 +$445 +146%
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $10 +$16 +158%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +10%
Senegal to score first vs. France? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $152 −$150 -99%
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $352 −$211 -60%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 −$32 -64%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$22 +2158%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
South Africa to score first vs. Mexico? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $201 +$58 +29%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -83%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $21 −$14 -67%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 08 $65 +$30 +46%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $11 −$7 -68%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 03 $101 +$34 +34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 31? May 31 $31 −$30 -96%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $70 +$172 +245%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $81 −$81 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $0 $0 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 30? May 29 $117 −$7 -6%
Will Rayo Vallecano win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? May 27 $31 −$25 -82%
Will Villarreal CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? May 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $6 −$6 -97%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $101 +$63 +62%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 29m
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 SELL Over $10 29m
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 12¢ $10 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 57¢ $101 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 2h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $101 2h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes $26 23h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $102 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 25h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $101 3d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 BUY Over 30¢ $10 5d
IR Iran to score first vs. Belgium? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 40¢ $305 5d
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 8d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 9d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $2 9d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 10d
Senegal to score first vs. France? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 10d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 10d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $101 11d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 11d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $51 11d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 43¢ $137 11d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $5 11d
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? BUY Yes $1 11d
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 11d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 11d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $301 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.68 · official $198.72 (match) · 412 history records